@traders

So far I am the only person who bought a boost under the new regime and I'm here to tell you it was AWESOME.

The market started out with:

• 100 mana liquidity

• 16% estimate

• 20 traders (only 1 in the last week though)

• 9 months of history

• 3.5 years max until resolution

So this is definitely a mid-cycle market.

I was interested in the question and felt like there was a solid chance the existing estimate was incorrect.

Applying the boost used 10,000 mana but pumped 5,000 of that into the AMM so now the market has 5100 mana of liquidity(!!).

Now that the 24 hour boost has expired:

• 25% estimate (max of 35%, never went below starting 16%)

• 64 traders

• 10,000 mana 24h volume

Incredible! The probability estimate has been nearly doubled and 10,000 mana was traded. Attracting 44 new traders to an old stale market is amazing.

Everything about the new system worked even better than I could have guessed. I highly encourage you to try boosting markets you are interested in. I'll definitely be seeking out another one to boost soon.

@Eliza you should include a conflict of interest statement XD

@MaxE all I am gonna say is I have boosted more markets than almost everyone on the entire site and I know when they hit harder than expected

@Eliza thanks for doing the experiment! and pushing the idea. hopefully this generalizes

@Eliza Would definetly love to grow enough to be able to boost markets I find interesting

In order to not be a money printer, you need to take the subsidy back eventually. How will that work? IIUC, whenever the price goes close to 100% before resolving YES, there is almost no mana left for liquidity providers?

@AhronMaline it costs 10k to boost, that is still a net sink

@Stralor this way it's good for the booster and the economy

@Stralor Then how is it different from boosting for 5k and adding 5k liquidity yourself?

@Stralor oh okay (although, are we worried about mana deflation?). But the announcement post does say Manifold will take the 5000 back...

@Irigi fundamentally it's not but psychologically it's much better imo. if boosts cost 5k, people wouldnt always put another 5k in

@AhronMaline yeah so the subtle difference is that Manifold provides the 5k subsidy, which means anything left over of that 5k at resolution goes back to them

@Stralor (often negligible, but it's an important distinction that this isnt strictly a rebate. it's an incentive program. "believe in your market so much you want more eyeballs on it? let's make it worthwhile for bigger traders")

@AhronMaline highly unlikely mana deflates any time in the foreseeable future. boosts arent that big of a factor in the economy at the moment, and mana has been strongly inflationary basically forever

@Stralor is there data on inflation of manifold

@XXXxXXX Mana is available for $1.

https://manifold.markets/stats

You'd have to come up with your own way to measure inflation. @EvanDaniel has one attempt here: /EvanDaniel/what-will-i-think-the-manausd-excha but that would just be a point-in-time estimate, perhaps repeating it could be useful.

@Eliza if I get good participation in that market, especially in the form of comments / reference points, I will happily run it again!

@Eliza Some sort of ratio of X/Total mana might work

@traders the feature is live and i landed on 2 month totals before vs after

@ian 5k mana wasn’t added to this market?

@ian you're 30 minutes late, he already won and my question is no longer interesting.

@ian did you happen to calculate the number we need to beat?

@Eliza By my reckoning the baseline is 20 mana/cash boosts in the previous 2 months

@wasabipesto which has been historically low

@Jack1 the free admin boosts don't get 5k atm, but i could see adding some liquidity on an admin boost