SEC has charged Binance with 13 different offenses, including operating an unlicensed securities exchange. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/highlights-sec-complaint-against-crypto-exchange-binance-2023-06-05/
Resolves YES if the SEC/US Gov't wins >=4 of the 13 charges it filed against Binance, or if Binance settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession, for example, a payout greater than $40 million and an agreement to not sell to US consumers, or something.
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1,000People are also trading
The SEC voluntarily dropped the civil charges. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-sec-voluntarily-dismisses-lawsuit-against-binance-2025-05-29/
if Binance settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession
I assume (and have bet Yes accordingly) that a consolidated deal with the federal government which dismisses the civil lawsuits (SEC, CFTC) in favor of criminal ones (DOJ) constitutes "substantial concession" regardless of the fine print on which government agencies are listed on top of the stipulated order.
