ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users in 2025?
58
1kṀ7556
Dec 31
80%
chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used.

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so many cowards on the NO side, they wont fill the 80% order

@256 lower the no price then 😊

There's no way that many people use chatgpt, right? Does it double-count users from different devices?

I read "1B" as "18" and was very confused.

boughtṀ750YES

@HenriThunberg wanna bet more at 85%?

@Bayesian Gentlemen's agreement of 5k at 82%? I'm not liquid, though.

ah no worries and hmm no not 82%

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 85% order

@Bayesian i will take 85%

@Bayesian the confidence to have ur estimate at 85% but not at 82% is inspiring bro 😭

@256 alas i have changed my mind (yesterday i thought the 800m number was 800m monthly active. wait do they even report weekly? if we'll likely have to go off of weekly to resolve this market, that would make me go back to being willing to bet at 85%)

if you want to bet on 1B weekly active users i'll bet against at 85% fwiw

bought Ṁ500 YES

they’re almost at 700m weekly actives https://x.com/nickaturley/status/1952385556664520875?s=46

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