@ian What's the reason this hasn't resolved yet? I'm not quite following the logic in the comments, but open to understanding. Are you waiting for the next user update with the thought you will be able to take that and backdate the number of users at time of close?

While it seems that not a single source is making the claim of 1 billion MAUs , and there are many sources with statistics under that.; I get the theory of assigning a probability because MAUs are typically higher than WAUs(although that was in February).

And while I disagree with this settlement as does the sentiment of traders on the market with 30% at close (as I would argue the available evidence(even if flawed) needs to be followed and if you can't produce evidence to the contrary that is provable you need to begrudgingly accept the data that is.) I think it's well past the deadline and if you're going to do the probability resolution just do it. There are 327 people with funds on this market and I can't see any scenario where new information will come onto the scene over 3 months afterward. I don't have much locked up but a lot of people do, and seems not great for manifold if resolutions take months. IF this market needs to stay unresolved I think you do owe the market an definitive explainer on the exact terms of resolution in one place. As in: "at this date it is expected that X information will become available if this shows than that means Athat means B or if that shows than this means A and I will resolve accordingly"

; at the moment there is a lot of information you allude to. But I think both as a result of the volume of it and some missing context it doesn't seem definitive or entirely clear which seems shared by those in the comment section. I'm roughly following your intent but could refine your meaning so we all understand. Like: What counts as a user(have you made up your mind on bots) ? If you see 1.1 Billion MAUS in April (not december) does that make you resolve No or yes? What information do you have about results coming down the pipeline that justify keeping the market unresolved? What will make you finalize your probabilistic resolution? by what specific criteria?

@ShaneBo I've been waiting for more stats on MAU or WAU from openai. Ideally I'd like to see them announce any MAU numbers along with WAU numbers so we can back calculate. If they announce their 1B WAU metric without MAU we can safely assume they're not going to announce their MAU any time soon. If they're not going to release MAUs, all we can do is guess at what it is from the WAU and typical usage patterns from other consumer apps. Those usage patterns typically show larger numbers of MAUs than WAUs. So if our best information says they have 800-900 million WAU as of December 2025, i would bet 200k mana at 80% that they had over 1B MAU.

Responses to your questions:

1. it's impossible to distinguish bots vs humans in their numbers, so not going to try. that was a bad clarification and i'm just going to go off their announced numbers

2. they're not going to announce MAUs is my guess (and the market's) but that would make me lean towards resolving no, as my model is that they had ~1.1B MAU as of Jan 1st 2026 already

3. no special information, just waiting to see if we get more illustrative numbers

4. specifically if they announce any MAU numbers along with WAU numbers, then we should be able to work backwards from their announced WAU in 2025 and I would resolve based on that conversion. without any better numbers, i guess enough people clamoring to resolve this market will make me resolve it sooner if we don't have any better numbers. ATM i would resolve the market to 80% and happily do handshake bets up to 200k mana at 80% that if we ever get good numbers on MAU, it will say they hit 1B in 2025. People get free daily loans on their investments so it doesn't seem that bad to have their mana locked up?

5. criteria atm is announced 800-900 WAU from sam, epoch, the information, typical WAU/MAU patterns, and every frontier llm estimates >1B MAU every time i ask for their opinion.

   

@ShaneBo

I suspect OpenAI could release a fully detailed report tomorrow saying 916m users and he'd say, hmmm, these footnotes use conflicting terminology, it is only appropriate to wait for firmer information,. But then if someone in 2028 idly says in a podcast oh, we hit a billion back in 2025 Ian will say AHA!!! I KNEW IT!!!!11!! and resolve yes.

https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/
"ChatGPT is the overwhelming leader in consumer AI with more than 900 million weekly active users, and over 50 million subscribers. ChatGPT has 6x the monthly web visits and mobile sessions than the next largest AI app, while total AI time spent is 4x the next largest AI app and 4x all others combined."

Retention rates max out at ~72% as of 2/12/26

This market needs to be resolved. Is there a known and single definitive source of information coming down the pipeline, that we are waiting for? Or are we just hoping more hints and indicators pile up?

Look, I bet on No. To my eye Altman saying "almost a billion" looks like clear evidence, but at this point I admit I'm still learning about Manifold and one thing I'm learning is we seem to be at the mercy of the market creator, and their isolated demands for rigour.

@JasonMurphy why do you think it has to resolve now? how much mana do you have locked in this market?

VLADIMIR:

Nothing you can do about it.

ESTRAGON:

No use struggling.

@JasonMurphy

ESTRAGON:

Charming spot. (He turns, advances to front, halts facing auditorium.) Inspiring

prospects. (He turns to Vladimir.) Let's go.

VLADIMIR:

We can't.

ESTRAGON:

Why not?

@JasonMurphy hah not really sure what this i referencing, but happy to loan you your potential winnings if you promise to pay them back when this market resolves even if resolves against you

@ian Beckett!

https://resources.saylor.org/wwwresources/archived/site/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Waiting-for-Godot.pdf

Gemini w/ 750 million MAU at EOY 2025, do you really think OpenAI had less than 34% more monthly actives than Gemini?

And ChatGPT is about 2x more popular on Google Trends, and has about 6x more app downloads.

@ItsMe @ian transparently google has a huge lead in it's built in user base relative to really anyone and for reporting purposes can likely use a pretty loose definition of what a gemini mau is. I.E: someone clicks through the gemini AI summaries in google search or checked out the google docs integration or used the notetaker on google meet. Which is to say if extrapolating from this number I would think it necessary to dig into what google is counting for their MAUs. I took a look and:

Google determines their MAUs: as the number of unique users who interact with the chatbot on web or mobile platforms within a 30-day period.

• Users are considered active if they initiate at least one session, prompt, or interaction with the Gemini service within the 30-day window.

• The metrics often reflect users who engage with Gemini via Google Workspace and Search, not just the standalone Gemini app

Which would count those use cases I listed. From this I would lean towards thinking Gemini would exceed ChatGPT MAUs or at least be very very close.

@ShaneBo do you have a source for this? that Gemini app MAUs are counting "powered by Gemini" integrations?

@ShaneBo It specifically says “Gemini App”MAU though. Seems clearly referring to app users and not Workspace or Search.

Any word on resolution @ian ? Previous comment from Tom seems to confirm NO

@Magnify does not seem to confirm no to me. please read the whole thread, including the final comment

Sam confirmed they didn't hit a billion yet ("Almost a billion people use it")

https://x.com/sama/status/2013703158459978076

@gpt4 This is more than enough for me. Let's hope resolution comes soon.

People isn't the same as users

@ItsMe OpenAI doesn't actually have any way to measure how many individual people use it, especially given that they allow incognito, unsigned use. The only thing the Sam can refer to is users, even if he said People.

Yes that's my point, Altman was talking about people, and this market is about users.

@ItsMe he clearly meant users given that you can’t measure people.

Also - I just realized that you’ve been playing the dumb guy in another market I was conversing today. Now I wonder whether you are just a troll trying to follow me. Did you even bet on this market?

@gpt4 hes literally talking about WAU. They only ever talk about WAU. No other metric matters. Do you really think he would randomly decide to speak in different terms for this?

@gpt4 I'm the second biggest yes bettor on this market, mate. It seems like you're the one playing dumb

@ItsMe I would have conceded here a while ago to free the mana for the winners, but you do you. The chances that OpenAI has hit 1B users in 2025 and hasn't announced it + the fact that Sam just said {"almost 1B") is slam dunk for any reasonable person.

If this market would have been open for trading it would have traded at close to 0 and you know it.

@gpt4 do you think ChatGPT has 1b lifetime users? Altman never specified the timeframe, so you could use the same reasoning to argue that ChatGPT has < 1b lifetime users.

And once again, Sam Altman was talking about people, not users. The fact that you can't measure people doesn't mean anything. I can say "hundreds of people use Manifold" without having to measure anything. It was an off-the-cuff remark in a feud with Musk, not a prepared, official, or precise statistic.

@gpt4 P.S. if you think the market would be trading close to 0 now, you can make a mirror of this market and put a limit order at 10%.

@ItsMe the market description says 1B MAU, not lifetime. Is your claim that when Altman says "Use" he means "Used"?

In any case, I'm happy I didn't bet on this market. I can understand why people with losing bets can be insufferably illogical and hang on the thinnest thread, but the market owner should have just resolved it by now.