Great intuition test re: fraud.

@Panfilo Wdym?

Facebook has 3 billion. OpenAI can only appear close to 1 billion so quickly by engaging in shenanigans like the aforementioned multiple device counting, which I would argue as including anything from bots calling the hotline number to the huge number of logged-out users getting counted as unique. The best defense I can imagine is all social media MAUs being fraudulent in similar ways, moreso now with... well, chatgpt et al.

oh well

polymarket is at 55% !!

@256 what kind of shenanigans is this !

@AmmonLam you might want to do business with this fella

oh...

@Bayesian tfw im so risk averse every big limit order i make triggers a full market investigation

order up

so many cowards on the NO side, they wont fill the 80% order

@256 lower the no price then 😊

There's no way that many people use chatgpt, right? Does it double-count users from different devices?

I read "1B" as "18" and was very confused.

@StepanBakhmarin fixed

@HenriThunberg wanna bet more at 85%?

@Bayesian Gentlemen's agreement of 5k at 82%? I'm not liquid, though.

ah no worries and hmm no not 82%

@Bayesian i will take 85%

@Bayesian the confidence to have ur estimate at 85% but not at 82% is inspiring bro 😭

@256 alas i have changed my mind (yesterday i thought the 800m number was 800m monthly active. wait do they even report weekly? if we'll likely have to go off of weekly to resolve this market, that would make me go back to being willing to bet at 85%)

if you want to bet on 1B weekly active users i'll bet against at 85% fwiw

they’re almost at 700m weekly actives https://x.com/nickaturley/status/1952385556664520875?s=46