This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used.
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that robots do not count towards the total; users should ideally be human.
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicated that 900 million weekly active users would be considered strong evidence for 1 billion monthly active users for resolution purposes.
Updates 2025-12-22 (PST):
(AI summary of creator comment): The creator's main concern is verifying the reliability of the WAU statistics being reported and if the 900 WAU figure may include API users inflating the number rather than being purely human users.
(AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that if ChatGPT actually has 900 million weekly active human users, the burden of proof would be on showing it is NOT 1 billion MAU, since mainstream apps typically have 70-90% MAU stickiness (ratio of MAU to WAU). However, the creator did not state the market would resolve YES by default based on 900 WAU alone.
(AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that the (Edit:I think this clarification is probably just incorrect, and users should be assumed human by default).
default assumption is NOT that all users are human. The burden of proof is on theYES camp to demonstrate that the users are human, rather than assuming WAU statistics represent human users by default.
Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving this market to their percent confidence in the bot/human ratio rather than a binary YES/NO, given the uncertainty about whether the reported 900 million WAU represents human users as required by the resolution criteria.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is leaning towards resolving this market to 80% (rather than YES or NO) due to uncertainty about the bot/human ratio, despite evidence of 800-900 million WAU from Sam Altman and The Information being "very good evidence for a yes resolution."
Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is delaying resolution to wait for more information. If forced to resolve immediately, they would resolve to a probability rather than YES/NO. They expect OpenAI may announce 1B WAU or 1B MAU soon, which would help determine the final resolution.
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This market needs to be resolved. Is there a known and single definitive source of information coming down the pipeline, that we are waiting for? Or are we just hoping more hints and indicators pile up?
Look, I bet on No. To my eye Altman saying "almost a billion" looks like clear evidence, but at this point I admit I'm still learning about Manifold and one thing I'm learning is we seem to be at the mercy of the market creator, and their isolated demands for rigour.
@JasonMurphy why do you think it has to resolve now? how much mana do you have locked in this market?
@ItsMe @ian transparently google has a huge lead in it's built in user base relative to really anyone and for reporting purposes can likely use a pretty loose definition of what a gemini mau is. I.E: someone clicks through the gemini AI summaries in google search or checked out the google docs integration or used the notetaker on google meet. Which is to say if extrapolating from this number I would think it necessary to dig into what google is counting for their MAUs. I took a look and:
Google determines their MAUs: as the number of unique users who interact with the chatbot on web or mobile platforms within a 30-day period.
Users are considered active if they initiate at least one session, prompt, or interaction with the Gemini service within the 30-day window.
The metrics often reflect users who engage with Gemini via Google Workspace and Search, not just the standalone Gemini app
Which would count those use cases I listed. From this I would lean towards thinking Gemini would exceed ChatGPT MAUs or at least be very very close.
@ShaneBo do you have a source for this? that Gemini app MAUs are counting "powered by Gemini" integrations?
@ShaneBo It specifically says “Gemini App”MAU though. Seems clearly referring to app users and not Workspace or Search.
@Magnify does not seem to confirm no to me. please read the whole thread, including the final comment
Sam confirmed they didn't hit a billion yet ("Almost a billion people use it")
People isn't the same as users
@ItsMe OpenAI doesn't actually have any way to measure how many individual people use it, especially given that they allow incognito, unsigned use. The only thing the Sam can refer to is users, even if he said People.
@ItsMe he clearly meant users given that you can’t measure people.
Also - I just realized that you’ve been playing the dumb guy in another market I was conversing today. Now I wonder whether you are just a troll trying to follow me. Did you even bet on this market?
@gpt4 hes literally talking about WAU. They only ever talk about WAU. No other metric matters. Do you really think he would randomly decide to speak in different terms for this?
@gpt4 I'm the second biggest yes bettor on this market, mate. It seems like you're the one playing dumb
@ItsMe I would have conceded here a while ago to free the mana for the winners, but you do you. The chances that OpenAI has hit 1B users in 2025 and hasn't announced it + the fact that Sam just said {"almost 1B") is slam dunk for any reasonable person.
If this market would have been open for trading it would have traded at close to 0 and you know it.
@gpt4 do you think ChatGPT has 1b lifetime users? Altman never specified the timeframe, so you could use the same reasoning to argue that ChatGPT has < 1b lifetime users.
And once again, Sam Altman was talking about people, not users. The fact that you can't measure people doesn't mean anything. I can say "hundreds of people use Manifold" without having to measure anything. It was an off-the-cuff remark in a feud with Musk, not a prepared, official, or precise statistic.
@gpt4 P.S. if you think the market would be trading close to 0 now, you can make a mirror of this market and put a limit order at 10%.
@ItsMe the market description says 1B MAU, not lifetime. Is your claim that when Altman says "Use" he means "Used"?
In any case, I'm happy I didn't bet on this market. I can understand why people with losing bets can be insufferably illogical and hang on the thinnest thread, but the market owner should have just resolved it by now.
https://openai.com/index/a-business-that-scales-with-the-value-of-intelligence/
>Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs.
no numbers :(
@jim kinda. they are very clearly not at 1b WAU yet. but im not 100% sure if they would announce 900m