WIll LK-99 have been convincingly debunked or proven by august 12th?
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resolved Aug 12
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Resolves NO @hmys

@hmys this can resolve YES NO.

August 12th has arrived, and the linked market has not been below 4% at any point.

predictedNO

@chrisjbillington You mean it can resolve NO?

predictedNO

@JamesColiar Er, sorry, edited

Looks like it has been convincingly debunked, and Polymarket is down to ~5%, but Manifold is still up at 13%. This question is now more about how low people will bet it for a return in a year and a half. Let's see.

@chrisjbillington What I don't grok is why that would be more of an issue for manifold (with the loan mechanic) than polymarket.

Given how tricky the process is and how crap the papers are, I expect it will take a while either way.

Soo much public interest, there are probably hundreds of labs racing to publish something. The first one that makes a needle point of material float closes the game.

@MicheleBortot Already been done. But that doesn't prove or disprove superconductivity

predictedYES

@Loop by whom? Only the Russian Anime girl. Not a proper reliable source. I'm waiting for a lab of a decent university making a proper total floating video to close the deal

@MicheleBortot Was just pointing your criteria has been met, and also that levitation doesn't prove superconductivity, e.g. graphite can easily levitate on magnets

@Loop You need to actually measure conductivity to prove it

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