WIll LK-99 have been convincingly debunked or proven by august 12th?
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resolved Aug 12
Resolved
NO
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bought Ṁ3,000 of NO

Resolves NO @hmys

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@hmys this can resolve YES NO.

August 12th has arrived, and the linked market has not been below 4% at any point.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington You mean it can resolve NO?

predicted NO

@JamesColiar Er, sorry, edited

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Looks like it has been convincingly debunked, and Polymarket is down to ~5%, but Manifold is still up at 13%. This question is now more about how low people will bet it for a return in a year and a half. Let's see.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@chrisjbillington What I don't grok is why that would be more of an issue for manifold (with the loan mechanic) than polymarket.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Given how tricky the process is and how crap the papers are, I expect it will take a while either way.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Soo much public interest, there are probably hundreds of labs racing to publish something. The first one that makes a needle point of material float closes the game.

@MicheleBortot Already been done. But that doesn't prove or disprove superconductivity

predicted YES

@Loop by whom? Only the Russian Anime girl. Not a proper reliable source. I'm waiting for a lab of a decent university making a proper total floating video to close the deal

@MicheleBortot Was just pointing your criteria has been met, and also that levitation doesn't prove superconductivity, e.g. graphite can easily levitate on magnets

@Loop You need to actually measure conductivity to prove it

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