https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein
Will I have more followers than levi finkelstein at the end of the 10th of january? Specifically: The question resolves to Yes if I have more followers than levi finkelstein at precisely the time this question closes.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ188 | |
| 2 | Ṁ95 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ36 |
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@levifinkelstein I followed a lot of people and some of them followed me back, so now I have twice as many followers as you do.
@hmys This means the betters on this market can currently swap the following as they want. The smart thing then is to buy stocks when they're cheap and then try to flip the market by changing who you follow.
@levifinkelstein Those are the same people. I know this because I am already following them.
I think what happened is they clicked on my profile when they got a notification that I followed them, then they followed back, then they clicked on this market, and then they made a bet.
@levifinkelstein I think this is a rather difficult coordination problem thats unlikely to make much of an impact on the long-term price of the asset. Look at the market for whether @BTE will reach 90 followers, or the new one about whether he will reach 100 followers. People tried their hardest to manipulate the price of that market, but they never managed to coordinate more than 2-3 people unfollowing at a time, and the price consequently never moved more than 5-10%. And needless to say, it didn't end up making a difference in whether the market resolved to a yes or a no.
@hmys That market is not very comparable since you can't unfollow unless you've already followed, so on average you would expect it to go up. Here there is no bound, one side could always attract more growth than the other side. In addition it's way easier to flip since you can increase the difference by 2 for each person that unfollows then follows the other person.