I will meditate until I become fully enlightened. When this happens will I be able to read peoples minds, phase through walls or see tiny objects very far away (without using external aids like a camera with zoom or a telescope)? Resolves YES if I can do at least one of these things. Resolves N/A if I don't manage to become fully enlightened. Resolves NO if I become fully enlightened but am unable to do any of these things.
1,000In this other market, HMYS issued a controversial resolution, then hid critical comments and offered to pay for positive reviews. You should perhaps consider that when deciding whether to put your mana in this market. https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-scott-win-the-book-review-cont?r=RGFuaWVsRmlsYW4
@DanielFilan I resolved it correctly, as I have all my other markets. People review bombed my markets because they lost money after trying to snipe the market on a technicality at the end. I asked people to review the market positively to correct for the people down-rating it out of spite.
For those who are unaware. The market was a book review contest hosted by Scott Alexander. A bunch of people would write reviews of books, then the readers of ACX would vote on those reviews, and the review that got the most number of votes would win. Scott himself entered the contest anonymously. I made a market on whether he would win. He did end up winning and getting the most votes. But he disqualified himself because he thought it would be improper for him to win his own contest. I decided to resolve the market YES, as what people were thinking about when reading the market for most of its existence was whether he would get the most votes.
@adele Hmmm. I guess I could try to get some independent scientists at my university to verify it.
@hmys How will you verify that you're a "fully realized arhat"?
Also, for "reading minds" do you have a specific test in mind? I'm interested in particular whether you intend to be in the same room as the person being mind-read or not, and/or whether you will be able to visually see them or not (since it's not obviously impossible to me that an arhat could have e.g. uncanny skill at reading facial microexpressions).
@adele I mean according to the traditional 10 fetter model. Ie, no ill will, material desire, self-conception, remorse or aversion, desire for rebirth in material realm or immaterial realm, no doubt in the buddha or attachment to rites or rituals or jhanic states, pride / no humility. These are the ones that seem easiest to test, so I will go by these.
Reading minds testing I imagine like this: Someone writes down a number of random number from 1 to 999 from random.org on the underside of a piece of paper while I am not in the room. Then I enter and try to guess the number by reading their mind then they show the underside of the paper. If I manage to guess correcly more than 70% of the time it will count as being able to read minds.
@JohnSmithb9be That is correct. However, this was not my intention with the question. I updated the description.