[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 41: What will white play?

229

Ṁ856

resolved May 30

ALL

43%

Qe7+

0.3%

47%

1.7%

0.4%

Kc3

0.4%

Ke3

self-embed:

What will white (Manifold) play in move 41?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4 32. a4 g5 33. b4 Ke6 34. bxa5 Kd6 35. Rb7 Ke6 36. a6 Kd5 37. h3 Kc5 38. a7 g4 39. a8=Q Kd6 40. Qe8 g3

market for previous move:

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created. The average probability in the last 4 hour of the conditional markets will be measured. The move with higher average probability will be chosen.

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ42
2		Ṁ26
3		Ṁ3

16 Comments

70 Trades

Sort by:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-4-238c6a3c9653 f4
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-4-35537840fcee Qe7+
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-4-1c542869fb0c Kc3

🤖

@harfe your random number is: 881757441

Salt: wf3RSfXY8Zb1Ww2uguMn, round: 2997679 (signature adb4dd6861dff86522da8cc339605b781338ed9858ac1190eeda6e1227d95c0c653292af5a24177da363f3863f0d1b680a7d0b562acc9486d5dc06d47cc9af8b91a4c002223d2bc9cba1824b2ea22cdcab6ee46de5b03b00c0ec58b4fac47bf8)

@FairlyRandom f4, Qe7+, Kc3

🤖

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999989, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2997677 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2997679, salt: wf3RSfXY8Zb1Ww2uguMn.

@FairlyRandom 999999989

Moves by average probability:

0.470204 f4

0.431511 Qe7+

0.017366 c4

0.004131 Kc3

0.004105 Ke3

0.003303 f5 (removed)

--------------------

pick a number between 1 and 999999989 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-689973633] f4, Qe7+

[689973634-859263596] f4, Qe7+, c4

[859263597-899426454] f4, Qe7+, Kc3

[899426455-939343998] f4, Qe7+, Ke3

[939343999-961048918] f4, c4

[961048919-979933048] Qe7+, c4

[979933049-985070980] f4, Kc3

[985070980-999999989] other

Hash of the complete table:

cd1c89db76e11017b051bb59a3cd7d0ad7c4079438b55b905b8e7a570bab8eb0

answered

Qe7+

Pure power only move for black is Kd5 followed by Rd7++

answered

Prefer it aesthetically with the brave little pawn helping in the mate, gives black the honor of a few choices for its demise.

answered

sold Ṁ21

sorry fat-fingered it

bought Ṁ10 of Qe7+

41 f4 c5

I don't see the mate

41 Qe7+

42 Rd7++

bought Ṁ1 of c4

@ChristopherRandles f4, Qe5++

@marnet not after 41 ... c5 as K has c4 escape square.

@ChristopherRandles It's a bet that black won't play c5. Bet Qe7+ if you're not comfortable with f4. Stockfish lvl3 could have moved that pawn at any point in the last few moves to weaken white's pawn advance and it didn't.