[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 4: What will white play?

Basic

Ṁ713

resolved Mar 14

100%31%

Nf3

4%Other

61%

0.1%

Resign1

0.1%

Resign2

0.1%

Resign3

1.5%

Ne2

0.4%

0.0%

1.7%

0.9%

Bb3

0.0%

What will white (Manifold) play in move 4?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6

Market for previous move:

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours.The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves.

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Chess

#FairlyRandom

#Manifold plays chess

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1,000

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3.00

17 Comments

6 Holders

132 Trades

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Please continue betting here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-4 for Nf3
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-resign for Resign2

@harfe your random number is: 956137967

Salt: PMSPrlYhfZYz1BGc39yq, round: 2776062 (signature 95666f884780b3cbbb93203d91bd67e76022a025f14c387fb1983888a66d325ca061da33fce6b903d2faf4f221523ec716a3676fff47486e0d26caef8f7065e1403674615b5133dfcce4c5f11c751da55b58f062b0638258410bc1c2db5c1b0e)

@FairlyRandom 😬

other 😭

@deagol I think that is Nf3 and Resign2

@harfe haha cool, we’re good 😅

https://pastebin.com/MZgsx1Si can someone download the file and confirm that its sha256sum is correct? And can also confirm that it is Nf3 and Resign2?

@harfe haven’t done the hash but I see this

(('Nf3', 'Resign2'), 955762701, 958333776)

@harfe hash matched

301c1f05bde840a571abf8d93692afd38bd4177d29cf474903a84c2cb1b3931f

@FairlyRandom 999999942

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999942, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2776060 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2776062, salt: PMSPrlYhfZYz1BGc39yq.

Moves by average probability:

0.305866 d3

0.246783 Nf3

0.094063 Bb3

0.084930 f4

0.071660 Ne2

0.010450 b3

0.003928 Resign3

0.003893 Resign2

0.003858 Resign1

0.000000 b4 (removed)

0.000000 a3 (removed)

pick a number between 1 and 999999942 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-250530239] d3, Nf3

[250530240-336587980] d3, Bb3

[336587981-413891751] d3, f4

[413891752-479180838] Nf3, Bb3

[479180839-543933100] d3, Ne2

[543933101-603103778] d3, Nf3, Bb3

[603103779-661732353] Nf3, f4

[661732354-714470996] d3, Nf3, f4

[714470997-763557358] Nf3, Ne2

[763557359-807259163] d3, Nf3, Ne2

[807259164-826986430] Bb3, f4

[826986431-843485878] Bb3, Ne2

[843485879-858290028] f4, Ne2

[858290029-872703739] d3, Bb3, f4

[872703740-884617581] d3, Bb3, Ne2

[884617582-895215436] d3, f4, Ne2

[895215437-905263332] Nf3, Bb3, f4

[905263332-999999942] other

Hash of the complete table:

301c1f05bde840a571abf8d93692afd38bd4177d29cf474903a84c2cb1b3931f

hope i didn’t mess this up?

So who will be online in the last four hours of the market?

just another boring one. btw I sense all our bets here will become humble sacrifice to the god of fortune 🙌🏼

Black played the most boring, quiet continuation. This responds in kind. 🥱

Prepares f4, d4, or castle.

Blocks the queen in so we don't do anything stupid with it for a few more moves.

@harfe your random number is: 956137967

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999942, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

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