[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 38: What will white play?

480Ṁ932

resolved May 24

100%76%

3%Other

0.3%

Ke3

17%

Rb6

self-embed:

What will white (Manifold) play in move 38?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4 32. a4 g5 33. b4 Ke6 34. bxa5 Kd6 35. Rb7 Ke6 36. a6 Kd5 37. h3 Kc5

market for previous move: [TODO]

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created. The average probability in the last 4 hour of the conditional markets will be measured. The move with higher average probability will be chosen.

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Chess

FairlyRandom

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#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ22
3		Ṁ17
4		Ṁ10
5		Ṁ2

15 Comments

7 Holders

37 Trades

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https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-3-a91bb5f8dd69 a7
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-3-4129e342270c Rb6
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-3-6cab324a3e15 f3

1y🤖

@harfe your random number is: 635195938

Salt: cRiKgTD0IsaNoh0THqEm, round: 2981467 (signature 820fd00405e0ae421c127baef2b79db1c92a56467565e2251fa44c17916c50009e900260fd9374fab2b2b1eaa98a7e6209b03aeacf0bc7ab9dcb67fed6feebd8379077497270e11935f22528b6c4290951ebf3150314826a2e3f027be10bcb54)

@FairlyRandom a7, Rb6, f3

@harfe kinda annoying that I have to create 3 markets for the 4th time in a row. That chance should only be 1 in 256.

1y🤖

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999992, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2981465 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2981467, salt: cRiKgTD0IsaNoh0THqEm.

@FairlyRandom 999999992

Moves by average probability:

0.694464 a7

0.189451 Rb6

0.076066 f3

0.003338 Ke3

0.003327 f4

--------------------

pick a number between 1 and 999999992 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-506387360] a7, Rb6

[506387361-733786932] a7, Rb6, f3

[733786933-930390763] a7, f3

[930390764-957331833] Rb6, f3

[957331834-966475000] a7, Rb6, Ke3

[966475001-975586636] a7, Rb6, f4

[975586637-984062351] a7, Ke3

[984062351-999999992] other

Hash of the complete table:

5b9f70e9c5afca6da2846b8d4dd4cf972890d74a0f942cac0ebc4dc40df361bf

https://lichess.org/analysis/8/1R6/P1p5/2k3p1/P6p/3P3P/2PK1P2/8_w_-_-_1_38 things are looking not bad

38 Rb6 Kxb6 and 39 Kc1 g4 could make black favourite? but will anyone try to force those moves?

@ChristopherRandles nah they’ll just lose mana

Unless of course, you're a plant. But I can't see how they force it without huge cost.

Note @jack dumped his YES in the main market. 🤔

@deagol It was a troll. I didn't propose move or expect anyone would propose or try to force it to happen.

@ChristopherRandles Why drop M$100 on a troll move? And @jack hardly ever reacts so drastically and within a minute.

I'll probably stop playing if this goes down.

@ChristopherRandles Yeah I know it's @JuJumper

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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

🏅 Top traders

@harfe your random number is: 635195938

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999992, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

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