[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 32: What will white play?

148

Ṁ140

Ṁ360

resolved May 12

ALL

100%36%

17%Other

47%

Rxc6+

What will white (Manifold) play in move 32?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4

market for previous move:

[TODO]

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created. The average probability in the last 4 hour of the conditional markets will be measured. The move with higher average probability will be chosen.

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

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9 Comments

4 Holders

10 Trades

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Going depth 38 on online Stockfish, lichess analysis says Rxc6+ is +99, while chess.com at depth 40 is convinced that Rxc6+ is a mate in 17.

@TobyBW go deeper, or show the bot by playing the lines. It’s mate in 15 with a4.

@deagol I'm not good enough at chess to know the lines, but I trust you.

@TobyBW play a4, then let it go depth 35+, see what the bot says.

@TobyBW some lines if black doesn’t respond with c5 it’s even shorter mate. for some werid reason the bots refuse to see the b4 pawn sacrifice as worth a faster mate

https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-3-a16ac846c1bb Rxc6+
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-3-33230984dab2 a4

Moves by average probability:

0.461371 Rxc6+

0.334854 a4

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pick a number between 1 and 999999999 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-999999999] Rxc6+, a4

Hash of the complete table:

edeabdef186b9c5ad8b51d3afa7cfe26050ebbd36ea7818009d4e271bc1f67c2

“There's an old saying about those who forget history. I don't remember it, but it's good.”
― Stephen Colbert

bought Ṁ25

Again engines are weirdly myopic on this perfectly logical a4, b4 idea to get a queen faster for a faster mate. They go depth 40+ without seeing it, but once one shows them by playing both moves, they do get the shorter mating lines at low 30s depth.

Otherwise, the slower but surer pawn gobbling can continue to the predictable end.