Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7 29. Re1 Kg7 30. Re7+ Kf6 31. Rxc7 h4
The other candidate move is 32. Rxc6+
The conditional market for the other move is here:
The market value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market and the other market will be measured. If this market has a higher (last-4-hour-average) market value, it will resolve to the score after move 33, otherwise it will resolve N/A. Note that "Market value" and "Score" do not work on the same schale.
Here is a table of the correspondence to market value and score for the current move which will be used to calculate PROB from this score:
Here is a table of the correspondence to market value and score
value score
----- -----
0.00 0.000
0.03 0.246
0.07 0.574
0.10 0.820
0.20 0.840
0.30 0.860
0.40 0.880
0.50 0.900
0.60 0.920
0.70 0.940
0.80 0.960
0.90 0.980
0.93 0.986
0.97 0.994
1.00 1.000
----- -----
This correspondence is defined by linearly interpolating between the points
(0.0, 0.0), (0.1, 0.82), (0.9, 0.98), (1.0).
The score after move 33 is the score (not market value) of the winning move in move 33. It might have a different function to calculate scores from market values: The function assigns score z to 50% market value, z+0.08 to 90% market value and z-0.08 to 10% market value, where z is the (rounded) score after move 32, but at most 0.9 and at least 0.1. Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.
Some More details for the overall game here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
1,000
3.00So what is the strategy people are aiming for here?
Is it to minimise number of moves white needs to win?
Is it to maximize the number of suicide moves a whale would have to force in order to win big on a draw or loss so this doesn't happen?
or push the game toward the number of moves you believe?
or something else?
@ChristopherRandles I just want to get it done, @harfe
should not have to pony up any more subsidies than required. This already greatly exceeded all expectations, so we can move on to an improved system (if that's even possible) or a better opponent. But if whales want to prolong it I can't stop them.
@deagol its a bit annoying that the unique trader bonus changed to M$ 5 from M$ 10. Where I previously got back most of the subsidies, now I only get back a small part of the subsidies.