What will white (Manifold) play in move 29?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.665563 Re1
0.073154 b4
0.000017 a5
pick a number between 1 and 999999999 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-749826898] Re1, b4
[749826899-999826898] Re1, b4, a5
[999826899-999996456] Re1, a5
[999996457-999999999] b4, a5
Hash of the complete table:
4fea2b2d1a10dd24ddc20bdc9a9736e96bd86e5e5202ddc59e5d8a0ab6fd726
I dont expect it to be super useful in this position, but here is a link: https://lichess.org/analysis/8/2p2k2/2p3p1/p6p/8/1P1P4/P1PK1P1P/R7_w_-_-_2_29