[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 29. Re1, what is the score after move 29?
4
6
110
resolved May 8
Resolved as
88%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8 24. Rxe7+ Qxe7 25. Qxe7+ Kxe7 26. Ba3+ Kf7 27. Bxf8 Kxf828. Kd2 Kf7

The other candidate move is 29. b4

The conditional market for the other move is here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 30. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 30 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 30.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predicted YES

resolution of market 29. Re1:

resolution score: 0.885494

corresponding market value: 0.885494

probabilistically rounded: 88%

predicted YES

29. b4: Average market value: 0.743839

29. b4: score: 0.743839

29. Re1: Average market value: 0.819723

29. Re1: score: 0.819723

Winner: 29. Re1

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resoluion of market 28. Kd2:

resolution score: 0.819723

corresponding market value: 0.819723

probabilistically rounded: 82%

predicted YES

@harfe testing the new script. Useful once score and market value will be different.