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MANIFOLD
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 18. Kd1, what is the score after move 19?
5
Ṁ130Ṁ316
resolved Apr 18
Resolved as
64%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5

The other candidate move is 18. Rc4

The conditional market for the other move is here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 19. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 19 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 19.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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Move 19: Average probability: 0.644936

probabilistic rounding: 64%

predictedYES

Kd1: Average probability: 0.587083

Rc4: Average probability: 0.587053


Hmm

predictedYES

@harfe seems like Kd1 wins