What will white (Manifold) play in move 11?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ176 |
Moves by average probability:
0.432783 d3
0.170101 g4
0.126888 Qc3
0.024728 Qd1
0.020600 Qb3
0.006641 b3
0.006641 d4
0.004569 Qa3
0.004539 h4
0.004509 h3
0.004479 Rb1
0.004449 Rh1
0.004419 Kd1
0.004389 Kf1
0.004359 Qg4
0.004329 Qd3
0.004299 Qh5
0.004269 Qf4
0.004238 Qe4
0.004208 Qxc6
0.004178 Qxf5
0.000000 b2 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999245 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-251537828] d3, g4
[251537829-434907975] d3, Qc3
[434907976-528088199] d3, g4, Qc3
[528088200-582490253] g4, Qc3
[582490254-616607120] d3, Qd1
[616607121-644980597] d3, Qb3
[644980598-660513016] d3, g4, Qd1
[660513017-673387099] d3, g4, Qb3
[673387100-683766280] d3, Qc3, Qd1
[683766281-693732037] g4, Qd1
[693732038-702828896] d3, b3
[702828897-711925736] d3, d4
[711925737-720524937] d3, Qc3, Qb3
[720524938-728808217] g4, Qb3
[728808218-735998491] Qc3, Qd1
[735998492-742252155] d3, Qa3
[742252156-748464582] d3, h4
[748464583-754635774] d3, h3
[754635775-760765731] d3, Rb1
[760765732-766854454] d3, Rh1
[766854454-999999245] other
Hash of the complete table:
fabf1d52ae623a6709a7856e65ca24b52c5cae0322beec6b33a908738b876f67
@A Not sure why this got so much support, gives up the c pawn for nothing. White can’t afford to give away even more material.
@MarkIngraham uh queen can’t get to h5 with the pawn at g4, but why try to get there? what’s the threat?
@deagol it's basically a timewasting move to eventually clear the path. Stupid move but I see the logic. Many times AI will suggest meaningless safe moves to wait for opportunities.
@deagol the pawn is a low value piece. Many of the ai moves are intended to stalemate or waste time rather than actually win. Winning can be the "dumb" high risk move and the low risk move is to just waste time and force stalemate. It doesn't matter if you're down material if you just play pointless repetitive moves and draw the game.
Personally I'm dumb but I would just force a queen trade.
@MarkIngraham the engine does not like g4. Not sure what you’re talking about stalemate, game’s far from that situation. And it’s not an ai it’s a search/eval algorithm.
@deagol every competent chess game stalemates, if the game isn't stalemating the players aren't good enough.
@jack you sure you have the right position? SF gives me an immediate 2 pt (a pawn) loss for this move compared to Qc3 and d3
@deagol I reran it and get a slightly better eval for d3. At some intermediate stage in the search (depth ~25) it briefly favored g4 but letting it run longer it seems to have settled on d3.
@jack Qc3 should be at the top at that depth, slightly ahead of d3. And g4 should not have been top not even second best at any depth. Weird.