[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 11. Qc3, what is the score after move 12?
Mini
6
506
resolved Apr 1
Resolved as
59%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7

The other candidate moves are 11. d3 and 11. g4

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 12. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 12 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 12.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predicted NO

Score after move 12: 0.594446

Probabilistic rounding yields 59%.

Qc3: 0.677043

d3: 0.668861
g4: 0.582098


Qc3 wins