The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3

The conditional market for the other move is here: [TODO]

If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 11. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 11 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 11.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch