its over

10-point arb

i started paying attention 90 minutes ago so hopefully that was a good bet

@Joshua Who is this Pierre guy?

@Joshua Bro who even knows

@Joshua it will be your undoing.

@Joshua taking a stand

@Tumbles I am and have always been a Poll Believer

@Joshua Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility)

@Tumbles he's a honeymoon believer, can't wait for the election

Even the pollster says so:

Just to confirm... if it is a liberal and ndp coalition then this will resolve yes?

@damarol If the Cabinet (including prime minister) consists of members of the liberal party (as it currently does), then yes.

@gwylim Not necessarily.

Depends on the order of operation.

If the Liberals and NDP reach a formal agreement before Carney resigns as PM (they'd only have a few days to do so), he could advise the Governor General that he can still command the confidence of the House, and form the government.

But if Carney resigns as PM or the Liberals don’t secure an NDP deal in time, the Conservatives will govern until they lose an early confidence vote, at which point a collation could take over. (The market would resolve to NO )

@spider where is this graph from?

@makeworld https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election

@PeterNjeim please buy more mana, this game is less fun without you

@spider I just wait for new honeymoon polls then take the free mana. I need to wait for more loans though

@PeterNjeim I feel like you're slacking, not pulling your weight in here!

https://x.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1879745435394273735

@MaybeNotDepends He's opinionated and likes his polls a bit too much... but interesting.

@MaybeNotDepends EKOS isn't an A-rated pollster and has always had outlier polls

When looking at the post resignation polls, the A-rated pollsters unanimously show a widening of the lead. Only B-rated pollsters showed a narrowing