Will Another GOP Congressman Announce Resignation by April 30th, 2024?
13
67
แน€395
resolved Mar 22
Resolved
YES

See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets

https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
--

Prediction Market Title:

"Will Another GOP Congressman Announce Resignation by April 30th, 2024?"

Introduction:

Following the announcement by Colorado House Republican Ken Buck of his resignation, there is speculation about more GOP resignations. Buck hinted at the possibility of further shrinkage in the party's majority when he mentioned concern about "the next three people that leave." This prediction market aims to forecast whether another Republican congressman will announce their resignation by April 30th, 2024, amid this context of potential political shifts within the GOP.

Example Headlines for YES Resolution:

  1. "GOP Congressman Announces Surprise Resignation Amid Party Turmoil"

  2. "Another House Republican to Step Down, Citing Personal Reasons"

  3. "Republican Representative to Resign, Leaving GOP Majority in Further Jeopardy"

  4. "In Wake of Buck's Departure, GOP Faces Additional Resignation from Congress"

  5. "Republican Congressman to Leave Office Early, Party Majority Narrows Again"

Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:

  1. "GOP Congressman Rumored to Consider Resignation, No Official Announcement Made"

  2. "Republican Representative Announces Not Seeking Re-election, Remains in Office"

  3. "GOP Faces Internal Pressure, No New Resignations Announced"

  4. "House Republican Steps Down from Committee, Remains in Congress"

  5. "GOP Congressman Denies Resignation Rumors, Commits to Full Term"

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines

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File Edit Options Buffers Tools Python Help

import openai

import requests

import json

import os

import shutil

# Set up the OpenAI API

openai.api_key = '..'

def get_response(prompt):

response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(

model="gpt-4",

messages=[

{"role": "user", "content": prompt},

],

seed=0,

max_tokens=2048,

temperature=0,

)

return response.choices[0]['message']['content']

--

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

"Yes, this would qualify as a YES resolution. The article clearly states that Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Republican congressman, plans to resign from Congress early.\

This is in line with the prediction market's question of whether another GOP congressman will announce their resignation by April 30th, 2024."

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

'Yes, this would qualify for a YES resolution as it clearly states that Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher plans to resign from Congress early.'

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

'Yes, this would qualify as a YES resolution. The article clearly states that Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Republican congressman, plans to resign from Congress early.\

This is a direct announcement of resignation, which is the condition specified in the prediction market title.'

--

Strange, it should be more deterministic. But for now this is fine.

Prompt:
--
Prediction Market Title:

"Will Another GOP Congressman Announce Resignation by April 30th, 2024?"

Introduction:

Following the announcement by Colorado House Republican Ken Buck of his resignation, there is speculation about more GOP resignations. Buck hinted at the possibi\

lity of further shrinkage in the party's majority when he mentioned concern about "the next three people that leave." This prediction market aims to forecast whe\

ther another Republican congressman will announce their resignation by April 30th, 2024, amid this context of potential political shifts within the GOP.

Example Headlines for YES Resolution:

"GOP Congressman Announces Surprise Resignation Amid Party Turmoil"

"Another House Republican to Step Down, Citing Personal Reasons"

"Republican Representative to Resign, Leaving GOP Majority in Further Jeopardy"

"In Wake of Buck's Departure, GOP Faces Additional Resignation from Congress"

"Republican Congressman to Leave Office Early, Party Majority Narrows Again"

Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:

"GOP Congressman Rumored to Consider Resignation, No Official Announcement Made"

"Republican Representative Announces Not Seeking Re-election, Remains in Office"

"GOP Faces Internal Pressure, No New Resignations Announced"

"House Republican Steps Down from Committee, Remains in Congress"

"GOP Congressman Denies Resignation Rumors, Commits to Full Term"

Will the following qualify

Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher will resign early, leaving House majority hanging by a thread

House Republicans lost another member in Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., on Friday. Gallagher's early departure could leave Republicans with just one vote to spare on le\

gislation.

Rep. Mike Gallagher talks with reporters in the Capitol after the House passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, that \

could ban TikTok on March 13, 2024.

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images file

March 22, 2024, 10:51 AM PDT

By Jonathan Allen and Scott Wong

WASHINGTON โ€” Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who announced last month he would not run for re-election, plans to resign from Congress early, according to two source\

s familiar with his decision.

bought แน€450 YES

This will resolve yes.

@Joshua Thx Joshua. Feeding it through right now..

looks good: https://chat.openai.com/share/5fefc43e-723b-4f42-bf6a-2a4113fb0257

Will push through API just because I want the code, but this should resolve.