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This is two markets in one. Which ever resolves first, wins. N/A if neither by November 5th.

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Prediction Market Title:

"Will a Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas Be Announced by November 5th, 2024?"

Introduction:

The White House has shown cautious optimism regarding the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas, particularly concerning the release of hostages. John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesman, indicated that Hamas's response to the proposed framework for a hostage agreement aligns with the terms discussed over several months. This prediction market will assess the likelihood of a formal ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hamas by the end of November 5th, 2024.

Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:

1. "Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire"

2. "Ceasefire Announced Between Israel and Hamas Following Negotiations"

3. "Ceasefire Agreement Reached Between Israel and Hamas"

4. "Israel and Hamas Declare Ceasefire After Negotiations"

5. "Joint Ceasefire Statement Issued by Israel and Hamas Leadership"

Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:

1. "Talks Between Israel and Hamas Continue With No Ceasefire Agreement Yet" - Indicates ongoing negotiations without a finalized agreement.

2. "Temporary Truce Between Israel and Hamas for Humanitarian Aid, No Ceasefire Announced" - Describes a truce, not a formal ceasefire.

3. "Ceasefire Discussions Between Israel and Hamas Show Promise, No Official Announcement" - Talks about potential progress but no actual ceasefire announcement.

4. "Israel and Hamas Near Agreement, Ceasefire Expected Soon" - Suggests an imminent announcement but does not confirm one has occurred.

5. "Unofficial Ceasefire Observations Reported, No Formal Agreement Announced by Israel and Hamas" - Refers to observations or informal actions rather than an announced agreement.
   
   
   Prediction Market Title:

   "Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th. 2024?"

   Introduction:

   Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially authorized plans for an offensive in Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, defying a red line set by US President Joe Biden. The plans include measures for the evacuation of civilians, although no specific timeline for the operation has been disclosed. This prediction market evaluates the probability of an official announcement of a ground invasion of Rafah occurring by the end of November 5th.

   Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:

   1. "Israel Announces Ground Invasion of Rafah to Begin Immediately"

   2. "Netanyahu Confirms Major Ground Operation in Rafah is Underway"

   3. "Israeli Forces Engaged In Ground Invasion of Rafah, Says Government"

   4. "Ground Invasion of Rafah Has Begun"

   Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:

   1. "Israel Increases Aerial Surveillance Over Rafah, No Ground Invasion Yet" - Indicates preparation, not an invasion.

   2. "Netanyahu Hints at Future Military Operations in Rafah Without Specifics" - Lacks confirmation of a ground invasion.

   3. "Israeli Military Conducts Drills Near Rafah, No Invasion Planned" - Discusses military activity without confirming an invasion.

   4. "Rafah Residents Prepare for Possible Invasion, Israeli Government Silent" - Speculation by residents, not an official announcement.

   5. "International Pressure Mounts Against Netanyahu's Rafah Plans, No Action Taken" - Focuses on international response, not the initiation of an invasion.
      

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

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