This market will be resolved yes if it is clear that Tesla has delivered mass produced trucks to customers. If they are only producing test runs it will resolve no. Edge cases will resolve no. If they sneak it in under the wire it will resolve no. It will resolve early January
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,886 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,300 | |
| 3 | Ṁ706 | |
| 4 | Ṁ370 | |
| 5 | Ṁ361 |
It seems Tesla chose not to reveal its CyberTruck delivery numbers. Also, the general opinion online suggests that Tesla hasn't made any deliveries to regular customers in 2023.
When creating this market, I've categorized any of "test runs, edge cases, and last-minute efforts" as a "No". Given that Tesla's actions seem to fit all of these categories, I believe it's fair to conclude this market as a "No, Tesla did not deliver mass produced Cybertrucks to customers in 2023".
Thank you for participating in the market!
Nvm
@gpt4 the first non tesla employee delivery was yesterday: https://www.youtube.com/live/mN4BhrRYVPs?si=_yhlbo1NXAhFNW3s
@GabeGarboden Thanks. While it might be true, it doesn't look like a reliable source.
I'm planning to wait until the earning date in 10 days to see if Tesla releases something more official.
@gpt4 Heres the original source. They are a major EV publication that's highly trustworthy. I don't think Tesla will specify this level of detail in their earnings: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-deliveries-non-employees/
Is this account reputable? It claims that the first non-employee cybertruck was just delivered. https://www.instagram.com/p/C2AoQOZvy0h/?igsh=MXB6NzBoeXN1eTFsdg%3D%3D
Original source of those pictures is this forum post
They makes no claim that it's the first non-employee delivery. There's probably no way for us to know for sure. It seems like it might be the first non-employee delivery posted about online.
@Mattfr They're a Tesla employee. From their YouTube channel description:
So excited to be living the Cyber Life!!! Come with a Tesla fanatic first, employee second, and my family on a journey of a lifetime!
520 Cybertrucks to customers. Certainly beyond small scale promotional deliveries and the 50 limit that you set in the comments.
@gpt4 https://x.com/Tesla/status/1742579933602263495?s=80 Tesla claims cybertrucks delivered in 2023
https://x.com/pclark15/status/1738219946146926936?s=20 This person received theirs on the 22nd and does not seem to have any ties to Tesla
@TobyBW Thanks for sharing. Is the VIN method reliable?
The person mentioned works for Tesla: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pmc31/
VIN numbers are generated when your vehicle is scheduled to be produced, regardless of when it actually arrives to you
https://old.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/yj6cw5/when_is_a_vin_number_generated/ium3y1z/
VIN registrations always exceed actual production and assembly figures
Not authoritative sources by any means but unless someone can find a reliable source contradicting those folks, it's not looking good for assuming VIN numbers indicate # of vehicles produced, much less number delivered to customers.
@JeremiahKellick Using VIN numbers I would rather trust Troy Teslike calculations (doing it for a long time with different models). Using such information for his production estimate is 270. He has 270 Production and 190 delivered but I am a lot less sure of the 190 delivered number.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1744201821638266916
"I use VIN data to calculate production. It works great. My error rate for production is only 1.3% on average. I can see not only different models, but I can also see production by trim level for each model."
That doesn't say how that is adjusted for inventory and I could imagine that this first quarter is highly unusual with lots out for testing (or missing that plastic part) which probably means they wouldn't show up as available stock for sale in the normal way so I could easily imagine that the 190 is noticeably overstated and this might be less than 50.
@gpt4 It’s because you’ve set this up such that the description sounds like Yes is the obvious answer and your clarification by comment sets a higher bar.
I don’t care how this shakes out (tho voted Yes for a tiny bet) but IMO this has been a poorly run market since you only set a quantitative bar ~two weeks before close.
@CoryS The description clearly outline that any BS launch by Tesla will count as a no. The only clarification I made in the comments is to set a LOWER bar for what count as a launch (only 50 vehicles with only 1 of those to a regular customer).
I don’t see how anyone would expect me to resolve the market as a yes without a single delivery to a regular customer (although you clearly do).
Looks like there is a plastic part that might be the culprit for the delay in deliveries:
https://www.reddit.com/r/cybertruck/comments/18oqokb/wavy_bed_plastic_fix_incoming/
It looks like the first regular Cybertruck delivery has occurred: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iRh2MRuWQ8 We'll see if Tesla can do 49 more in next 11 days.
@gpt4 Thanks for the comment. I hadn't noticed that deliveries to Tesla employees don't count. I've adjusted my bets accordingly.