Will Israel Attack Non-Military Targets in its Retaliation Attack Against Iran?
Basic
8
Ṁ484
resolved Oct 26
Resolved
NO

  1. I'll use international humanitarian law to distinguish military vs non-military targets. I will resolve an ambiguous case by using my best judgement

  2. I will only consider the initial attack(s). I.e. not further escalations

  3. I will only consider attacks on Iranian soil

  4. If there is any non-military target involved, the market will resolve as NO.

  5. Collateral/unintended damage will not be considered unless it was directly targeted.

  6. If Israel doesn't end up attacking Iranian soil this year, the market will resolve as NO.

#🇮🇱 Israel
#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict
#Arab-Israeli Conflict
#Iran
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I've resolved as no as every report (from Israel, Iran, and the world) is confirming that the attack was only on military bases and weapons manufacturing facilities both considered valid military targets by international humanitarian law.

If there will be a substantially different claim popping up in the next few days I'm happy to revert the resolution and wait for things to clear up.

Looks like the attack happened and ended. I'm going to wait a bit until it becomes more clear what was attacked (last time there were satellite images and reports from reputable sources in the following week).

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