MANIFOLD
Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (2 March 2026, week 7)
1
Ṁ1kṀ500
Mar 10
69%
chance

From whenever I go to bed on Sunday night/Monday morning on March 1/2 2026 (with a hard cap of 3am EST on Monday morning) to 3am Monday 7 days later, will I earn at least 6 of the 9 points below?

-Take adderall on 3 distinct calendar days

-Lift 2x

-Eat >=800g of protein

-Complete and submit at least 1 substantial non-course deliverable (could be my research group, job application, or anything else substantial - will solicit trader opinion if fuzzy)

-WORTH 2 POINTS: Submit all weekly coursework within 48 hours of deadline and attend at least one lecture for each scheduled class within 10 mins of start time, with at least one lecture attended on at least 3 distinct days (attendance = within 10 mins)

-Practice solo drums on 3 distinct days (ie group rehearsals don't count, solo does, even if it's just with a practice pad)

-Begin bedtime routine by 2am and be in bed with lights and phone off by 2:30am on at least 3 distinct days (again, Sunday night counts, regardless of before or after midnight)

-Have spent at least 60 cumulative minutes outside before 2pm on at least 4 distinct days

These are all hard cutoffs. I.e. showing up 9 minutes after class starts counts towards class goal, 11 minutes doesn't.

All times EST.

This is part of an attempt to habit track and incentivize sticking to goals. I will only bet YES in this market, to incentivize myself.

Previous markets:

Week 1 (resolved YES)

Week 2 (resolved NO)

Week 3 (resolved YES)

Week 4 (resolved YES)

Week 5 (resolved YES)

Week 6 (resolved NO)

Updates from last week

-Daily Activation: "Outside by noon" -> "Outside for at least an hour by 2pm"

-Class: Added "3 distinct days" requirement instead of just half total

-Overall: Class now worth 2, need to go 6 for 9 instead of 5 for 8

Past goal success rates:

Adderall - 5/6

Gym - 4/6

Protein - 3/6

Drums - 6/6

Class - 0/6

Research/non-class work - 3/6

Sleep - 3/6

Daily activation - 4/6

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