Background

Farcaster is a decentralized social media protocol built by Merkle Manufactory. The protocol allows multiple clients (front-ends) to operate on top of it, but the official client developed by Merkle has historically dominated the ecosystem.

Key Facts:

• The official front-end client was originally called "Warpcast" but was rebranded to "Farcaster" in mid-2025

• The official client commands 90%+ of active users in the Farcaster ecosystem

• Domain changed from warpcast.com to farcaster.xyz during the rebrand

• Third-party clients exist but lack full feature parity—many cannot send private messages or create channels

Recent Strategic Shift:

• After 4.5 years of a "social-first" strategy, Farcaster leadership has pivoted to a "wallet-first" model

• The team is emphasizing wallet functionality, trading features, and mini-apps over social engagement

• This pivot has led to speculation about whether the official front-end will continue as a social media platform

What This Market Predicts

This market asks whether the official Farcaster front-end will stop functioning as a social media platform provider. This could happen through:

1. Complete removal of the app from distribution channels

2. Official announcement of discontinuation

3. Removal of core social features (posting, following, feeds) even if the app continues for other purposes (e.g., wallet-only)

Resolution Criteria

YES if any of the following occur by December 31, 2026:

1. Complete removal: The official Farcaster client (mobile app and/or web app at farcaster.xyz) is permanently removed from app stores and official distribution channels, such that it is no longer available for download or access through official means.

1. Official discontinuation announcement: Merkle Manufactory officially announces the discontinuation, sunsetting, or deprecation of the front-end client as a social media platform (regardless of whether wallet or other features continue).

1. Pivot to non-social platform: The front-end is transformed such that it no longer functions as a social media platform provider—meaning core social features (posting casts, following users, viewing social feeds, engaging with content) are permanently removed or disabled, even if the app continues to exist for other purposes (e.g., wallet functionality, trading, mini-apps).

NO if:

• The front-end continues to operate and allow social media functionality (posting, following, feeds, social engagement) through December 31, 2026

• The front-end undergoes rebranding, feature additions, or strategic pivots but maintains core social media functionality

• The front-end is maintained with reduced or modified social features but still serves as a social media platform

Key Definitions

• Official Farcaster front-end client: The user-facing application (mobile and web) developed and operated by Merkle Manufactory, formerly branded as "Warpcast" and currently branded as "Farcaster" (accessible at farcaster.xyz)

• Social media platform provider: An application that enables users to post content (casts), follow other users, view social feeds, and engage in social interactions

• Merkle Manufactory: The company that develops the Farcaster protocol and operates the official front-end client

• Core social features: Posting casts, following users, viewing social feeds, replying to content, engaging with other users' content

Important Notes

• Temporary outages or maintenance do not count as discontinuation

• Rebranding alone (e.g., name changes, logo updates) does not count as shutdown

• Adding wallet features while maintaining social functionality does not count as shutdown

• The front-end may still exist (e.g., as a wallet app) but if it no longer provides social media functionality, this resolves to YES

• This market is about the official client ceasing to function as a social media platform, not about the Farcaster protocol itself (which is decentralized and can continue with third-party clients)

Sources for Resolution

• Official announcements from Merkle Manufactory or Farcaster team

• App store listings (Apple App Store, Google Play Store)

• Official website status (farcaster.xyz)

• Public statements from Farcaster leadership

• Feature availability in the official client