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MANIFOLD
Will Iran agree to a plan limiting their nuclear program before 2023?
21
Ṁ181Ṁ639
resolved Oct 26
Resolved
NO
This market resolves positively if Iran either returns to the previous agreement outlined by JCPOA or agrees to a new plan which places limits on their nuclear program even if the terms are less extreme (or more extreme) than the JCPOA, which, according to the latest reporting by the Wall Street Journal, is the current thinking of the Biden Administration: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sees-irans-nuclear-program-as-too-advanced-to-restore-key-goal-of-2015-pact-11643882545.
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This Wikipedia section seems like a good comprehensive summary of 2022, and does not show an agreement reached:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#2022

I am not an expert on this topic, I was shown some web pages that indicate no deal was reached, and chose to resolve this in the interest of getting everyone their mana back. If you genuinely think this is an error, report in and we can fix it.

@gg Can this resolve?

The gist of recent news headlines: * Iran leader signals support for nuke talks at critical stage. * Iran seems willing to leave aside the issue of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) being on the terror list. * EU diplomat Josep Borrell says things are "very close." * French Foreign Affairs Minister says, "We are near an agreement." * U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley says he is "not confident." I feel that there's a chance that the pessimism signaled by the US might just be part of their bargaining strategy? I'm buying enough YES to move this market to my current guess: 60%.

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