Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
getby avatar
I get down
118
closes 2025
12%
chance

If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.

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roma avatar
Romabought Ṁ100 of NO

For reference: this is like 1-3% of employed people loosing or switching job, if I didn't mess up the calculation

AgenticLondoner avatar
Jamiepredicts NO

When I bet this won't happen, I'm not making any claim about the relative pace of automation,

I'm saying the US Bureau of Labour Statistics et al won't frame the problem through this lens to measure the collected statistics in this way.

1 reply
roma avatar
Romapredicts NO

@AgenticLondoner This could be estimated by looking at all repots like "such and such news org fired x% of their editors because of AI" instead of by looking at employment rate stats.

But I'm not sure these agencies do such type of work.

As for looking at stats, if it's like 3% change, I'm not sure it's even above noise and needs to be explained.