If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.
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For reference: this is like 1-3% of employed people loosing or switching job, if I didn't mess up the calculation

When I bet this won't happen, I'm not making any claim about the relative pace of automation,
I'm saying the US Bureau of Labour Statistics et al won't frame the problem through this lens to measure the collected statistics in this way.
@AgenticLondoner This could be estimated by looking at all repots like "such and such news org fired x% of their editors because of AI" instead of by looking at employment rate stats.
But I'm not sure these agencies do such type of work.
As for looking at stats, if it's like 3% change, I'm not sure it's even above noise and needs to be explained.



















