Will I become a addicted to any drug within the next 10 years? (read description)
16
209
645
2034
20%
chance
  • If I notice I have been taking any non-prescription substance more than 2 times a week (give or take) for more than 2 months straight, and fail to either drastically reduce that number or stop entirely this market will resolve YES.

  • I won't be counting substances used exclusively for pain management, or prescription substances unless I start showing typical signs of addiction (ex: taking it more and more frequently, dependency, cravings, withdrawals, inability to stop taking the substance, etc).

  • I wont be counting caffeine or any of the compounds you would expect to find in the average cup of coffee or breakfast tea (ex: theanine, theobromine, paraxanthine, theophylline, etc). Unless for some reason I started taking extracts of these compounds.

  • If in the future I feel any substance should be excluded from this market I will add it in the description and a comment.


EXTRA INFO

Drug meaning "any chemical substance that when consumed causes a change in an organism's physiology, including its psychology”. Addicted meaning "Being physically or psychologically dependent on something.". While I don't use it often I will be excluding caffeine entirely, along with any substance I'm prescribed as long as it's being used as intended and not abused. I also won't count things that aren't in the spirit of the question (ex: dopamine, adrenaline, etc), it must be a substance outside of my body, that I am putting inside my body. I will not trade on this market after 2024 ends.

For some background, my family has a long-running history of addiction. I won't get into specifics but I am a young adult with a connective tissue disorder that causes medium-level chronic pain. I've had a fascination with drugs of all sorts for around 5 years on a conceptual and political level. I have tried most substances you would expect someone non-religious to try at least once in their life, and am very open to trying more. I even plan on attending shambhala music festival one of the upcoming years which is known for its drug culture.

Because of my family history and my personal interest in the topic I've been very heavily educated about the risks of addiction, how to responsibly use any substance you put into your body, and I'm very serious about it. I tend to tread very lightly around habit-forming, or potentially addictive substances and don't even regularly take caffeine. In addition I've recently been experimenting with a handful of legal psychoactive plants none of which I plan to ever take regularly.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

Hopeful no bet

predicts YES

Description edited to better umbrella over compounds found in coffee/tea, and fix some minor formatting issues.

Does coffee count?

predicts YES

@ken as said in the description I wont be counting caffeine, but you did make me realize I should probably extend that to some of the other compounds found in coffee

How do you feel about weed? (I assume you have tried it due to the availability and prominence in treating general pain) If you like weed and it helps your symptoms how likely is it you'd be able to get a prescription/license for it where you live? (versus buying it as an illicit drug)

How experienced are you with psychedelics in general? (Don't need to go into specifics, just whether you have had 1 - a few - several - dozens of trips/somewhat profound experiences)

predicts YES

@dgga Q1: weed makes me not care about pain much, but it makes me not care about a lot so when I would need the pain management most (while working) I dont also like feeling slow and less alert, if I really felt like it there's probably a 80% chance I could get a medical marijuana card but thats not something I plan to do.

Q2: a few somewhat profound experiences and a couple more casual trips

bought Ṁ121 of NO

@fredrickslick Good luck! With this information, and the fact you've already tried the usual stuff but aren't addicted yet, I feel confident enough to set a little NO limit at 20%. Just don't fucking do heroin it's not worth it

predicts NO

On a totally unrelated side-note @acc has finally realized I've stolen thousands of mana from it and started mimicking my bets instead of counter-betting. I feel accomplished (albeit a bit sad).

What is your probability estimate of falling on hard times (prolonged unemployment, serious bereavement, lack of money,...) in the next 10 years?

@CamillePerrin I'd say about 15%, I do struggle with MDD, but have never used drugs as a method to cope with it and certainly dont plan to. Other than that I live a pretty standard young middle class white guy life.

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