Francisco Lourenço's calibration
Grade: S, Score: -0.01
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Francisco Lourenço bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
50%
60%
70%
- Will Mark Bradford's painting 'He Barked Just Like a Watchdog' (2011) fetch more than $6mm at auction on November 17th?NOṀ10
- Will the total number of goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup be higher than the 169 total goals scored in the 2018 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ10
- Will the total number of goals scored in the 2022 FIFA World Cup be higher than the 169 total goals scored in the 2018 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ10