China has already depleted most of its natural resources, so is becoming increasingly less self-sufficient. The growing need for supplies of vital imports including fossil fuels, food, and freshwater will place increasing strain on the PRC. This challenge will focus on China’s growing shortage of freshwater, and the implication of a possible land grab in the southeast of Russia where Lake Baikal is located.

The rationale for this potential outcome is that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that will have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic freshwater supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and desalination. The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the South-North Water Diversion Project, which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least 2050.

In the meantime if there’s a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to Lake Baikal as it contains around 20% of the world’s fresh water.

View “Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?” on Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2046, credible sources report that the People's Republic of China has launched an invasion of any area of Russian territory, defined as at least 100 overtly flagged military personnel from the People's Liberation Army having been deployed over the Russian border, with the operation believed to be for the purpose of placing any area of Russia’s sovereign territory under the control of the PRC.

Fine Print

• If separatists or other unofficial pro-China actors seize control of a region in Russia the question will resolve as Yes if China sends at least 100 overtly flagged troops into the region without permission from Russia while Russia still claims to possess the territory in question.

• A deployment of overtly flagged troops across the border that fails to capture territory is sufficient to result in the question resolving as Yes, if credible sources assess that the intent of the operation was to seize territory.

• Russia peacefully allowing a region to vote to secede or become independent is not sufficient to qualify as "seizing control". To be considered "seized" the separatists or unofficial pro-China actors must use military force or the threat of military force to take control of the territory.

• For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the legitimacy of either Russia or China, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the country on September 25, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. If the country no longer exists or has no successor as defined at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.

• Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt, and may make a determination as to appropriate resolution in the event of unclear or contradictory information, or resolve the question as Ambiguous.