We've been trying to find a more efficient input method for as long as computers have existed. That road is lined with the bodies of thousands of failed attempts.

I don't doubt we could eventually get something better (Neuralink, maybe?) but it would need to be such a paradigm shift that there's no way the tech could be developed and popularized in just 7 years (assuming aligned asi doesn't magically change everything) .

Haven't smartphones already reached this point? But I guess you're asking about a new mode, so maybe they are excluded, and we're looking for a new class of devices to arise. Also not sure how to resolve, maybe there's a study of screen time by device type and age group.

@fwbt virtual keyboards still remain the primary way to input text on a smart phone like device

If you had picked a heavy-user adult demo I might've been less certain of YES here, but even if e.g. Neuralink gets off the ground by then I doubt many children under 12 are going to have one at that point.

@AndrewHartman

@firstuserhere I am sorely curious as to why you separated these. What specific scenario do you see dividing these?

@AndrewHartman I don't think most kids are typing on their keyboards the same way that adults are! I almost always prefer a physical keyboard over a virtual one, my fingers just glide over the keys as I think, it's a very well learned process. I see older people pressing keys for individual characters one by one, whereas I see (anecdotally) younger kids talking to their phones a lot more these days

@firstuserhere Hmmmm. I suppose since we're talking about future 12 year olds, not present ones, the higher throughput demands of college/business aren't going to be relevant.