Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?
Dec 31

Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work.

Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. #episodes must be >=3.

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Quality has to = current industry production standards for anime?

@DanW The creator have invested heavily in YES and ignores questions, so i guess not.

predicts YES

@DanW The discussion for this is spread out over the multiple years markets, but here's something which if produced would qualify the bare min of quality:

The creator have invested heavily in YES and ignores questions, so i guess not.

Not really, its a token bet, and I will be actively trading to keep the market where I believe is a rational price to be, and will be happy to resolve against my current bet (which I could flip later ofc).

predicts NO

@firstuserhere Hmm I am surprised this would count.

I was thinking this question was a clear NO, but the above would also have not counted for me. Selling out of the market because of quality bar uncertainty.

predicts NO

@firstuserhere ok this is unironically very enjoyable

predicts YES

@YoavTzfati I watched several minutes of Dr Katz and did not at any point feel compelled to turn it off, I stopped because I had to do other stuff.

Does this mean by January 1st, 2025? Or by any time in 2025, but the market is closing early by end of 2024? @firstuserhere

predicts YES

@BenjaminShindel This one is for the end of 2024. There is a whole spectrum of these markets for every year till 2028. Maybe I should modify all of their titles to indicate year end instead of year start as well.

predicts NO

Is there a minimum episode length?

predicts YES

@JimHays The standard 20 minute should be the default, in most cases I envision. Maybe a 16 minute one could scrape by, but let's rule out 15 and under minutes.

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Again, sorry for not responding earlier. I simply didn't know there were comments on this market, never got a notification, and once market got >100 traders, stopped getting the unique trader notification as well, and forgot about the market for a while haha (did make some bets in passing, but those were timeline updates, than me checking market)

Define anime

backrooms game

predicts YES

@ParthKolekar it is certainly... Coherent... And it has already pumped enough material to form 3 episode serieses.

The AI is confusing sometimes, but you can find the train of thought that it took to get there... usually... So IMO it is no less coherent than surrealist anime.

@ParthKolekar This doesn't look 100% ai generated to me. Are you sure it is?

predicts YES

@YoavTzfati which elements do you think might not be AI generated? Scripts, animation, editing and voices all appear generated. Character skins and scene paintings could theoretically be generated at the current quality. The music and sound effects seem like they're being sourced from a library and edited by the story generating AI which should be enough to qualify, considering how much of music composition by humans is just resourcing and remixing sampled material.

I still don't think this currently qualifies because of the short scene length and lack of cohesion between scenes but I don't see any other issues. I'm not questioning this as not being the product of generative software. It very clearly is.

predicts NO


the character avatars are "ai generated" in maybe the loosest sense, a human designed the models and then possibly the ai chose random hair color or eye size or wether the character has neko ears or not.

The gestures the characters make also seem to be canned "emote" style preconfigured animations and the AI is again "animating" them in the loosest sense that it's picking some to go with the dialog (if it's even doing that)

The background models are also probably not AI generated,

The music is not ai generated, it should not be allowed for the AI to just stitch human generated music together.

predicts YES

@Odoacre I'm not sure that the "loosest sense" argument is going to keep this market from resolving as YES. Japanese school uniforms are restrictive to begin with and these kinds of anime almost always have a clearly defined style with very little variation.

predicts NO

@marnet I think it's pretty clear this is not what @firstuserhere had in mind. The only thing that's actually AI generated for sure here is the dialogue, and it's garbage

predicts YES

@marnet The animations aren't generated. These are very popular unity engine assets that anyone can download and emote.

However, I do think that this should count as AI generated anime. The grounds for my argument aren't the quality of the dialogue, but instead that it exists at all.

Consider anime on the whole. Do you think the current quality of this twitch stream is not on par of Neon Genesis Evangelion's last two episodes? Does the plot make any more sense than that of Serial Experiments Lain or Paprika (2006 movie)?

Anime on the whole is capable of a lot of surrealism and nonsense on the whole, and if we want to judge on the grounds, we must judge keeping these IPs in context.

predicts YES

@ParthKolekar the animations might be canned but they're being triggered by something that's interpreting the dialogue. The simplest system to do this would have some procedural rules that trigger a speaking character emote with one of a set of canned animations. I watched a few scenes where this could explain the animations but there's a lot more going on in other scenes. There's one highlighted scene where the characters are running through the halls of their school, being chased by a monster. There's another scene where the same characters are shaking in fear as they summon a monster using a book of demons. Any system that can handle this level of variation should probably qualify for animation.

I still disagree on the story. @firstuserhere explicitly said that the story needed to be coherent. Take a look at the comments for the 2024 version of this market for more details on story requirements.

predicts YES

@marnet I'd say that it's "coherent". There's a progression of nonsense but people have built a religion and deep lore around such incidents as Twitch Plays Pokemon and now there's memetic material about it.


I would call Twitch Plays Pokemon, a "coherent" experience to watch, even though it's literally watching Twitch chat. There was a goal that twitch chat was aiming towards and lore about events that happened. It wasn't an anime though.

In that sense, this anime is a "coherent" experience. The characters interact with each other, have character traits that they each comment on and make conversation based on the topic.

Eg: The male protagonist keeps calling the short blue haired girl as a goth waifu.

I don't know if that's coherent for all of you however. I'd expect a criteria here would be that you want some form of learning to happen, for instance where the bot feeds generated output back into the character lore to have developing plotlines.

predicts YES

@marnet could you link to the 2024 market?

@ParthKolekar https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-we-have-end-to-end-ai-generate

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2024?
20% chance. Resolution Criteria Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work. This question is open until 31/December/2023. What does stitching mean? If the human is stitching together scenes according to the AI-generated script, then it is okay, where each scene is produced independently, including music, avatars, video, etc. If the human is taking bits of random scenes and stitching them together based on their own best judgement, then no. As it will be not easy to always determine what's the case, I can shoot an email to the creator and see what they have to say. The role of human basically reduced to ~ an automation agent. Edit: Has to be non-crappy Series and episode Length Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. number of episodes must be >=3. As far as I know, most episodes in anime are ~20 to 24 (or more) mins long, so i'll take that as a general guideline for minimum length. The publisher doesn't have to be a major studio but the won't qualify for this market if it's partial snippets and released without a coherent storyline. Should be a series not a single episode. Trading Please try to trade on the spirit of the market rather than exploiting loopholes in my language used for description. Always free to ask for clarification in the comments when in doubt.

@ParthKolekar I mean this is total crap? Also uses 3D models instead of actual images in anime style. IDK maybe that works for this market as written but certainly doesn't get at the underlying capabilities question.

predicts NO

@SneakySly ai image and vid generation has embedded learned 3d models of classifiers, fwiw, per recent research

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