Will someone from the all time profit leaderboard have a net negative profit by the end of 2023?
38
220
690
resolved Aug 10
Resolved
YES

This is the starting state, today's leaderboard how to appears to me for top traders.

Will any of these 20 users have negative net profit by the end of 2023?



Shamlessly copying a few points from @MayMeta's markets:

1. If Manifold admins discontinue the Leaderboard feature (it's no longer available through any link) this market resolves N/A regardless if the total profits value is still displayed on the profile page.

2. Intentional total profit value manipulation by strategic betting by anyone will not be disqualified, and this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.

3. Intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs / alt-accounts / bots / or fake accounts WILL be disqualified provided sufficient proof, and this market will close, untill the admins take necessary actions and/or rollback the exploited profits, and only after that the market will be reopened. If this market is ever resolved as YES by mistake and later admins ban the user or rollback the exploited profits this market will re-resolve as N/A.

4. In case of a dispute a poll will be held on how this market should resolve.

5. >=2 people have to confirm in the comments that the resolution criteria are met. A photoshoped screenshot wold not trigger the resolution.

@Catnee doesn't count as a bot account for this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ668
2Ṁ115
3Ṁ61
4Ṁ31
5Ṁ29
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bought Ṁ600 of YES
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr Yep I see this too

predicted YES

@jcb and they wondered why i bet yes... i saw the writing on the wall

Is @Catnee considered a bot for the purposes of #3?

Instead of asking several people to confirm, maybe allow the profile chart to be admissible evidence?

@Mira no, Catnee is not a bot according to me, regardless of the tag, but thanks for asking for clarification.

2 separate people (not accounts) will be enough for multiple-people validating, in addition to me checking as well, so sounds enough

@firstuserhere updated description to reflect this

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Is it at any point? Or at the end of 2023 specifically.

@ShadowyZephyr any point in 2023 after market was made afair