Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1100 Daily Active Users.
Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAU
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ447 | |
| 2 | Ṁ278 | |
| 3 | Ṁ200 | |
| 4 | Ṁ112 | |
| 5 | Ṁ100 |
I get that people are bullish on Manifold but the last time this happened was May 8th and this was due to a spike that lasted until May 5th.
It has been 26 days since it happened and it has ~26 days to make it happen and almost certainly won't happen in the next few days since it would have needed some run up time. This market should also experience time decay which I am getting ahead of.
@MarcusAbramovitch it's happened 7 times since December, so on average about a month.
Time decay is completely rational as the probability drops over time. There's no sense in "trying to get ahead of it".