When will GPT-5 finish training?
28
254
Ṁ4KṀ2.3K
Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
Q4 2023
33%
Q1 2024
21%
Q2 2024
9%
Q3 2024
4%
Q4 2024
4%
Q1 2025
11%
Q2 2025
6%
Q3 2025
3%
Q4 2025
1.8%
In 2026 or beyond
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Unless I can’t count, arb with https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025?r=VGhlQmF5ZXNpYW4
TheBayesian 🦚sold Ṁ5 of
Q3 2024
YESactually, presumably @firstuserhere if openai closes before 2026, presumably, this would resolve to the last option? Or NA?
@TheBayesian I think if it has already finished training, then there's a case for resolving to the Q4 2023 option
@firstuserhere I’m more asking if it hasn’t finished training, and never will because it is decontinued forever. How would the market resolve in that case?
@TheBayesian Yeah, N/A if OpenAI dissolves (and it has not already finished training by then)
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