What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
8k
6666
16%
Other
7%
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
7%
Music is a net negative for humanity
5%
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
4%
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
3%
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
3%
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
3%
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
2%
Cascadia should be an independent country
2%
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
2%
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
2%
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
1.9%
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
1.8%
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
1.6%
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
1.6%
Cars are a societal net negative
1.6%
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
1.6%
Tech bros are really, really annoying
1.6%
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
1.5%
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Non-resolving market; acting as a survey; asking people to submit any less-mainstream beliefs; see if the manifold crowd will support those beliefs or not.

Submitting answer =/= believing an answer

It is ok to submit an answer you don't believe in to gauge how other people feel about it.

You could also buy YES if you think its underpriced and will likely become more popular, doesn't have to indicate belief


P.S. If someone has an option they'd like to submit but don't want to submit it themselves, DM me, I'll add it for you.

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Cars are a societal net negative

@JaimeSantaCruz now that's a new one, tell me more

@Shelvacu Tell me you live in / are from California without telling me you live in / are from California amirite?

They should be illegal full stop

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

This should be 90%+, as few people in the real world, especially outside of developed Western countries believe it's morally wrong to eat meat. Vegans are only 3-5% of US population, and many of them do so out of personal choice, rather than view it as a moral issue for society.

bought Ṁ30 of Factory farming is h... YES

@Maniuser After more careful reading, it seems that the % is reflecting the market weighting given the entire portfolio of opinions, rather than what % of people actually support the belief. So while this item would not receive 90% given the setup, the fact remains that it's a position that would have higher popular support than almost all other positions listed, including those ranked higher.

People who participated in this market will likely enjoy this LW post.

Shortly after i created this market, there were 2 posts created on r/slatestarcodex that ask more or less the same thing (I'm p sure one of you lot created it xD). Anyway, might enjoy reading them.

Post 1 :

What do you believe that few other people believe?

Post 2:

What are some concepts or ideas that you've came across that radically changed the way you view the world?

@firstuserhere this seems much less useful than either of those though since there's no quality/plausibility filter.

I encourage people to go check out @JosephNoonan 's market on this same topic. It serves as a better interface for getting credence for individual options and will likely end up being more useful

People post actually unconventional views that most people actually disagree with 2023 challenge.

@NicoDelon Actually some of these views are so conventional that I hesitate to buy NO shares on them non-anonymously.

@NicoDelon Always the reason of "overpriced/underpriced" can be used :)

@firstuserhere Social desirability bias is such that I don’t want to be the one correctly pricing such views. Maybe I should create an alt!

sold Ṁ5 of SBF was obviously a ... YES

@NicoDelon Though I’m realizing maybe I should actually buy YES not because I agree but because they’re very vanilla views.

I poorly counted and got, counting buckets of the percent of the population that'd agree with the view:

15 >50% / 16 >25% / 14 >10% / 8 >1% / 2 <1%

Most of >1% and (i think) all of <1% weren't serious though.

I'd encountered all of them before except the honey and sound system ones. And even for honey, I've seen 'artificial flavors are good and consumers deserve to be tricked' in general.

I know some of you guys have beliefs that I haven't heard of before.

somewhat interesting ones: ai exterminating the human race might not be so bad (but that's a lot more common than most would naively expect, and also a lot less obviously false than most people want it to be), dialetheism (but that's a meme), mira's post (just because there are, rarely, other people who genuinely believe that), alcohol tax, pet immoral (strong arguments there tbh), nuclear family bad, car sound system bad, alcohol (also arguable)

bought Ṁ2 of Answer #3ad2c0bc7d61 YES

So we’re betting to signal our (or predict rhe community’s) agreement with the proposition, right? Not betting on whether it is unconventional or not, right?

@NicoDelon At this point yes, as that is what usually gets engagement, but I'd like to see people submit more unconventional ideas too

@firstuserhere So do you think at equilibrium the proposition ranked last is the least conventional?

@NicoDelon No, because this type of market structure is not ideal for this question. Coincidentally, <1 hr (approx) after this market, independent/unlinked free response market type was released and someone is working on setting up a question similar to this using that market type. That should give a better credence for each option individually, than this setup.

bought Ṁ1 of Answer #8d14d54ecd64 YES

@firstuserhere Oh right, because the answers are linked.

A lot of this stuff is very conventional 😅

@Soli unfortunately this market incentivizes putting semi-conventional ideas forth if you want profit

@Soli Most of what I submitted was "things that make the Reply Guys on Manifold upset to hear."

@Stralor And it incentivises trying to find scissor statements if you want unique trader bonuses!

Cars should not have sound systems

Congrats on having one of the only arguments I had never heard before (the other being dialetheism) in a list of supposedly unconventional opinions