We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The first American moon landing was faked

The next American moon landing will be faked

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions. 

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism). 

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part 

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

China not having real democracy does more good than harm 

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world. 

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

Less than a day after it was created, the new option for unlinked free response questions was created. Since that market is meant to gauge what people think on a bunch of independent questions, the unlinked format would have worked better for it, so I decided to make one myself (with permission).

The only difference between this market and the original is the market type and what options are on it. Like with his, this never resolves, it is just a way to see what Manifold thinks of each belief.

Submit any belief that you think is controversial or non-mainstream, especially one that is novel or interesting. Then bet on the options based on whether you agree or disagree with each opinion.

Submitting an answer doesn't mean you believe in it. You can submit an answer you don't believe in to see what others think about it.

You could also buy YES if you think its underpriced and will likely become more popular, doesn't 

's market before this one was created, and you'd like it to be added, just ask me and I'll submit it for you. I'll probably also do this for people who submit options to his market afterwards, I just included the "before" limitation so that I can't be forced to spend infinite mana. 