By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
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70-90%
>90%

AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today

  • including generating the theorems to prove.

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I'm assuming compute used to train top LLMs grows by 4x per year, so about x500 in 4.4 years, i.e. by Dec 31 2029. This would require skills beyond problem-solving, in particular identifying a promising research question. Overall, I see it as likely but I'm not 90% condident. So I'll vote yes.

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