I wouldn't rule out operator error during the eclipse from ERCOT causing a blackout, but during the most recent "DEFCON 2" (I forget ERCOT terminology) power shortage event (which was complicated, but mostly due to operator error). The quickly growing grid tied battery storage facilities sent out about 3GW of power (iirc) and basically singularly saved the grid from losing so much frequency everything went down.

all that being said, I think the obviously forecastable eclipse will allow ERCOT to know well in advance what reserves need to be available at the time, so the only reason this might happen is particularly bad weather, or multiple LNG plants having unexpected outages at the exact same time as the eclipse.

Related:

https://manifold.markets/Flekkie/will-the-solar-eclipse-of-october-1?r=Rmxla2tpZQ

Will the Solar eclipse of October 14, 2023 cause major power grid outage in one or more US States

9% chance. Question resolves YES if at least one of the US states suffers a power grid outage involving more than 1000 households, and at least one official source cites the solar eclipse to be a contributing factor. If no outage meets the criteria, or an outage meets the criteria but no source confirms the role of the solar eclipse, the market resolves as NO. Closing at 23.59 on October 16, 2023 EST (allowing 2 additional day for publications by official sources) Context: getting to know Manifold and I want to set up an easy near-term question that I can get my head around.