⚡️ Will there be a blackout in Texas during 10/14 solar eclipse? 🌞🌘🔌
29
closes Oct 15
4%
chance

On Oct 14 there will be a solar eclipse in Texas around noon, when PV solar is at its peak. With 22GW of solar at stake, will it break the grid?

I will resolve YES if there is a blackout affecting at least 10k households.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/texas-s-grid-faces-october-solar-eclipse-challenge-blackout-risk

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brubsby avatar
brubsby

I wouldn't rule out operator error during the eclipse from ERCOT causing a blackout, but during the most recent "DEFCON 2" (I forget ERCOT terminology) power shortage event (which was complicated, but mostly due to operator error). The quickly growing grid tied battery storage facilities sent out about 3GW of power (iirc) and basically singularly saved the grid from losing so much frequency everything went down.

1 reply
brubsby avatar
brubsby

all that being said, I think the obviously forecastable eclipse will allow ERCOT to know well in advance what reserves need to be available at the time, so the only reason this might happen is particularly bad weather, or multiple LNG plants having unexpected outages at the exact same time as the eclipse.