Yet another attempt to fix the "which side has more shares" market. (Exponent 0.6, see description…)
11
100Ṁ747
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES
31

This market will resolve based on the sums of each trader's positions to the power 0.6 (before summing). For example, a user with 100 YES shares will contribute 15.85 points to the YES side. The side with the highest point total will be the one the market resolves to.

To discourage sniping, after each close, there is an 80% chance that the market will be extended for approximately 24h. (I will ask FairlyRandom for a number from 1-5, 1-4: extend, 5: resolve. This will be repeated every day until a 5 is rolled.)

Inspired by:

https://manifold.markets/JiaheLiu/an-attempt-to-fix-the-will-this-clo#0p0x2ozj3sne

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Sum (YES shares)^0.6: 86.891
Sum (NO shares)^0.6:  82.964

@4fa we win

@121 Smartly deduced. Is your IQ 121?

@4fa no my iq is 21

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 5

Salt: j75ldgqlocj, round: 5602251 (signature 880ebe660345ecbb2bc024d5bb0f0bfc004af60f81ecdfddd9bfd77993b2220b17192ecdf5e8da9b3388bfe7898b62990d0c82382d6cfca44aeddfd391b7d24ce13a878f1fc1f72aed932f5d17786909f751ae355480d67eda2d48d859b1a3d5)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5602249 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5602251, salt: j75ldgqlocj.

@FairlyRandom 5

bought Ṁ17 YES

reposted

The odds significantly are above 50%, yet the market is effectively self-resolving and small bets have disproportionate power, seems like significant a profit opportunity for potential minnow NO bettors

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 1

Salt: utns5y60qme, round: 5599349 (signature a63133d86e3a4d893bd8edc2a45e129d95ba663948f728008e858def51c52dbba6e23a373ce5c944190675680ce2ddee0acdebcd17c3e4b9b2cb6b6f29fe9a9880aee7d9db4cc28ac9b551ddee10df488aae4773261b4565d92758912ac68df0)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5599347 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5599349, salt: utns5y60qme.

@FairlyRandom 5

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 3

Salt: gt9x98rfwr, round: 5596451 (signature 92e1fd98ee2ae3de0e7b0eddb642e451318eafd2dae8089fed6037d95f30c2ddfbc108a401d0d28c19c7f6fba277b7520466a579740617686587ab88c474c02f6046db7d6c365b13294db7408caf0593c3826f667ee70579487a2a64ca08fa3f)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5596449 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5596451, salt: gt9x98rfwr.

opened a Ṁ2 NO at 52% order

@FairlyRandom 5

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 3

Salt: w7z9l852ni, round: 5593615 (signature b06e4286cca0a760c7cc66902625f2045f99735175ca9a387c726cc1a34c047b9be74bd7ad84c3c2f201b520b71dc47005af93ce4a561c86a12d7b0dddc29d6fc03835acb838fa6d6c914f810f6050ac146a18349f1ed7dc3965470f3248df88)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5593613 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5593615, salt: w7z9l852ni.

@FairlyRandom 5

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 3

Salt: l9xc9bgh8ma, round: 5590790 (signature 96f2d829a20e717830619055aa84fc838b562b781de567e6759717bdf10154c3d5e44224a60dac1494a1fea688c5328919f8a74e3bd214e5d88cb385955098d6ffef0bcfb5bdba81b21fa992ebf85bd49d84d3b2f260c2f19b1a35938847c5f7)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5590788 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5590790, salt: l9xc9bgh8ma.

@FairlyRandom 5

@121 I dare you to hold this market at 67% until resolution

@TheAllMemeingEye that will result to a loss, because cheap no shares

reposted 
Positions: 2
Total YES shares: 9.87
Total NO shares:  9.84
Sum (YES shares)^0.6: 3.950
Sum (NO shares)^0.6:  3.943

oh no...

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