Hey guys! I'm a nut when it comes to finance, and I think this idea could have really really big implications if it comes to fruition
I have been wondering for awhile if it is possible to get direct exposure to stocks on manifold. At the moment I am assuming not, but maybe with publicity this could happen.
So far, I have tested the waters with this market
https://manifold.markets/f/will-spy-be-worth-more-than-457-on?r=Zg
as of now if real world arbitrage was possible, my guess is it would be trading at around 60%.
The root of this question is about finding out if mana is capable of have having some functions of a dollar. If for example, a mana-eligible charity was willing to get involved with manifold markets, to them $1 would be worth 100 mana because in theory they could donate it to themself.
The technicals:
I am looking to start more markets like the one linked here. If some one is willing and able to take the other side of bets like these on the order of 50k mana by this time next year, then this market will resolve yes. I am willing to accept an inneficieny of up to 5%, giving space for a theoretical arbitrager to make a nice profit.
If this market resolves yes, that would mean that you could trade on my markets and they would be inherently profitable on average as long as you are on the buy side of the market
1,000
3.00@chrisjbillington strictly speaking, this criterion is true:
The technicals:
I am looking to start more markets like the one linked here. If some one is willing and able to take the other side of bets like these on the order of 50k mana by this time next year, then this market will resolve yes. I am willing to accept an inneficieny of up to 5%, giving space for a theoretical arbitrager to make a nice profit.
If this market resolves yes, that would mean that you could trade on my markets and they would be inherently profitable on average as long as you are on the buy side of the market
but your resolution sounds like it's more in the spirit
NB: I have a whopping 5 mana invested here. I'm indifferent to the result, just providing an opinion
@Stralor I guess I don't really get it. What about that market satisfies the criteria? It doesn't have M50k of volume. What price should it have, to be evidence for a YES or a NO resolution here? What would it look like if it didn't satisfy the criteria?
I suppose I don't really understand the criteria, or perhaps they're not coherent.
Does "inherently profitable on average" mean in dollars?
Markets aren't "inherently" profitable anyway - it depends what trades you make at what prices. So I'm not sure what properties the creator wants to see in markets like that for them to be evidence either way about this one.
@chrisjbillington to the first point: we now do have the volume to technically satisfy 50k mana trades on stock markets.
to the second: I agree, that bit isn't entirely coherent. I think an argument could be made that it means dollars, in which case your suggestion of NO holds. but even then there's no world where trading on an unbound derivative always results in profit.
I think I strawmanned you here. I agree with NO (but am still ultimately indifferent)