Hey guys! I'm a nut when it comes to finance, and I think this idea could have really really big implications if it comes to fruition
I have been wondering for awhile if it is possible to get direct exposure to stocks on manifold. At the moment I am assuming not, but maybe with publicity this could happen.
So far, I have tested the waters with this market
https://manifold.markets/f/will-spy-be-worth-more-than-457-on?r=Zg
as of now if real world arbitrage was possible, my guess is it would be trading at around 60%.
The root of this question is about finding out if mana is capable of have having some functions of a dollar. If for example, a mana-eligible charity was willing to get involved with manifold markets, to them $1 would be worth 100 mana because in theory they could donate it to themself.
The technicals:
I am looking to start more markets like the one linked here. If some one is willing and able to take the other side of bets like these on the order of 50k mana by this time next year, then this market will resolve yes. I am willing to accept an inneficieny of up to 5%, giving space for a theoretical arbitrager to make a nice profit.
If this market resolves yes, that would mean that you could trade on my markets and they would be inherently profitable on average as long as you are on the buy side of the market
