What is more profitable, betting yes or betting no?
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Ṁ230Ṁ380resolved Mar 14
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If I were to bet 10 mana on 10,000 random questions, would I make more by betting yes or by betting no? Resolves to the answer. Resolves prob% if an answer is probable but unproven at close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@f Manifold's overall calibration suggests that users tend to overestimate the probability of YES resolutions, so betting on NO is likely more profitable here.
@Unown I second this. A large part of my strategy has been to prioritize NO bets on markets I think are overestimated. (instead of vice-versa). It has made me a profit so far.