This market resolves as YES if, according to my subjective judgment, Elon Musk has jumped down the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory rabbit hole before January 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO on January 1, 2025.
I will not bet on this market.
DISCLAIMER: I am not Jewish, and my knowledge and understanding of anti-Semitism, anti-Semitic dogwhistles, etc. may be limited as a result.
Additional context
There's been a worrying resurgence of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories recently, e.g. Kanye West's anti-Semitic rants last year and Noname featuring an anti-Semitic verse from Jay Electronica on a song of hers and refusing to back down (for some reason.)
Elon Musk has been criticizing the ADL heavily - which in and of itself is not anti-Semitic, since it's a single organization that does not necessarily represent all Jewish people. However, his fixation on it is worrying, since a lot of his Twitter/X fans are far-right and could end up radicalizing him (or he could end up radicalizing himself) to believe that Jewish people themselves are collectively to blame for Elon's grievances with the ADL.
Fine print
A rose by any other name clause applies in re: X v. Twitter, "posts" v. tweets, etc.
This market resolves subjectively, not based on objective criteria. However, I can provide insight into my thought process to hopefully make betting easier.
I would consider him to have jumped down the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory rabbit hole if:
Elon starts regularly talking about a "secret deep state" or "cabal" that controls the government or major financial institutions, either in the U.S. or worldwide, AND it's accompanied by anti-Semitic dogwhistles elsewhere in his tweets/public statements/etc.
Elon goes completely off the deep end and starts engaging in Holocaust denial or something similar, or goes mask-off with the anti-Semitism and starts posting/saying things like "I’m going death con 3 On JEWISH PEOPLE."
Elon starts talking about "Zionism" - not in the context of criticizing the Israeli government or the actions of the Israeli state, but in the context of conspiracy theories about Judaism or Jewish people as a whole.
Elon starts making anti-Semitic remarks but claims to be "just kidding" - I am not giving him the benefit of the doubt here.
Elon starts "liking" tweets about anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, or tweets that otherwise contain blatant anti-Semitic dogwhistles that he could not possibly be ignorant of, or tweets from anti-Semitic hate groups/Neo-Nazis, etc.
I would not consider him to have jumped down the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory rabbit hole if:
Elon starts criticizing the Israeli government or the actions of the Israeli state, without blaming those actions on Judaism/Jewish people or otherwise blowing any anti-Semitic dogwhistles. Similarly, support for Palestine is not sufficient for YES unless it's also accompanied by anti-Semitic dogwhistles.
Elon starts talking about conspiracy theories unrelated to anti-Semitism (UFO conspiracies, "stolen election" conspiracies, JFK death conspiracies, etc.) and there's no indication of clear anti-Semitic attitudes elsewhere in his tweets or public statements.
Elon continues to obsess over the ADL, but just the ADL, and it appears to be a grudge rather than the beginning of something much worse.
The above (particularly the first) are not comprehensive lists of what could cause me to resolve this market.
Only tweets/"likes"/public statements/etc. made after this market opens (roughly 4:00 PM Pacific time on September 10, 2023) count towards resolution.
If Elon Musk is rendered permanently unable to tweet or make public statements by 2025 (e.g. through death or imprisonment lasting past January 1, 2025,) this market resolves NO. If he dies, I will immediately close the market and resolve it to NO after one week, just in case there are any "Elon Musk found to secretly have a stash of anti-Semitic books"-type discoveries immediately after his death. If he's in a coma or otherwise rendered temporarily unable to tweet or make public statements, this market remains open until January 1, 2025 regardless.
Related questions
Edit: ehhhhh actually I should just N/A, don't want to bug her.
It seems he's made peace with the ADL (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1709592361481777360).
He's also met with some Jewish leaders in a Space covering antisemitism on the platform (video: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1707589491924361353, [biased] summary: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1707558634555588922), though the market has moved since then, so it may be priced in.
I have what may be a crazy theory that I've been sitting on for a while, but I've decided it's more crazy to believe it but be unwilling to state it publicly. Feel free to ignore me!
I don't doubt that Musk believes the right-wing things he tweets. But I don't think his primary motivation for tweeting them is that belief. When people say he's gone off the deep end in this regard, my impression is that their evidence is that he almost exclusively repeats right-wing points and interacts with right-wing figures. He claims to have heterodox beliefs, but we don't see evidence of that on Twitter. Ergo, he must have been radicalized.
But there's another huge incentive for him to tweet these things. His openly stated intent is to create an 'everything app', and he justifies his purchase of twitter as speeding up user adoption by some years (I think this is a reverse rationalization after he got himself stuck in this position, but that it is true today). Twitter's userbase has historically been left-wing. By amplifying right-wing politics, he's signalling that Twitter is now a safe space for the right, with the intent of rapidly expanding the userbase.
I don't think this is 5D chess or anything (though my having this theory could be criticized as such), just 2D chess- he has a goal and is taking actions towards it.
I'm about 80% confident in this atm (so ~95% confident that he won't '(publicly) jump down the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory rabbit hole before 2025'), but it would not surprise me if he made an antisemitic joke or mentions a 'deep state' while accidentally using a dogwhistle, so I'm not pushing this down as far as that. A major piece of evidence I'm relying on is his claim that "X is the effective global address book" (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1697145283472244974)
(This was the worst possible comment to accidentally fire off early. Riddled with errors. Should be okay now.)
@calm We can add Soros conspiracy theories to the list of questionable stuff Elon has already engaged with, then...the fact that he's doing it less than a week after his ADL obsession stuff is not a good sign.
(Not enough for YES on its own, but could end up being part of a YES later as evidence.)
@evergreenemily If the timing is important to you, you should be aware that Musk has been going after Soros all year ( https://twitter.com/search?q=soros%20(from%3Aelonmusk) ), and that his spat with the ADL is (in part) an effect of that rather than the other way around.
@evergreenemily He’s just salty that Soros sold Tesla stock and disagrees with his views.
@ShadowyZephyr I don't think the first part is right. Soros only held Tesla stock for ~6 months (most for ~3 months) and it would be weird if being upset about the sell wasn't balanced out by being happy about the buy immediately before.
I'm more inclined to believe that they had some kind of interaction as a result of that purchase that caused Soros to sell and Musk to get mad, but that's pure speculation.
Are you sure? At the present time he is the functional equivalent to Henry Ford…
What if a large amount of “anonymous” comments posted online were uncovered, and definitively traced to Elon Musk, are explicitly anti-semitic? Or hidden documents are leaked/uncovered (whether from hard drives or hidden journals) which demonstrate the same?
Would either of these count as a “Yes”?
The problem with these questions is that it is unclear whether he was always anti-Semitic, and most have either failed to notice, or have willfully dismissed such notions (whether due to delusions, bad faith arguments, willful ignorance, etc.) or if this is in fact a recent phenomenon due to the current political climate.
@Meta_C Hmm, good point. I'd definitely count it as a YES if he doubled down on his beliefs/tried to defend something obviously indefensible.
I might tweak the title to add "(publicly)" to reflect the fact that it's difficult to know anything about his private statements, including ones he may have made in the past.