How many anti-trans laws will be enacted in the United States in 2023?
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resolved Jan 4
Resolved
N/A

This question resolves as the number of anti-trans laws (as counted by https://translegislation.com/ ) that are enacted by state governments within the United States (or, less likely, the federal government) at any point during 2023.

As of October 29, 2023, 583 anti-trans bills have been introduced in legislatures across the country. Of these, 373 are active, 125 have failed, and 85 have passed. Of these, 84 have been signed and enacted into law, for an average of roughly 8.5 anti-trans bills enacted per month. The others have not been signed or vetoed by their respective governors yet.

In 2022, 174 anti-trans bills were introduced in legislatures. Of these, 142 failed and 26 were enacted into law, for an average of 2 anti-trans bills enacted per month. So far, the rate in 2023 is five times higher.

According to Trans Legislation Tracker, "2023 marks the fourth consecutive record-breaking year for anti-trans legislation in the U.S.," with more bills focusing on denial of gender-affirming healthcare, control of education (e.g. banning pro-trans topics, not allowing students to be out at school but not at home), and "drag bans" that primarily target trans people. A federal bill that would prevent the government from recognizing the existence of trans people at all has, as of May 2023, 25 sponsors in the House of Representatives (though the bill cannot pass the Senate, probably cannot pass the House, and would be vetoed by Biden anyways).

Any anti-trans bill that is enacted into law in 2023 counts, even if it is later repealed or struck down as unconstitutional.

If Trans Legislation Tracker no longer exists as of January 1, 2024, I will find another reputable source to count the number of anti-trans bills signed into law in 2023. I will try to keep the data cited above relevant by updating it at least once a month. The resolution criteria of this question will not change. As the website that will be used to resolve this question is publicly available, and the question resolves based on objective criteria, I will bet on this market. I don't believe anything could cause this market to resolve as N/A, nor as a number below 84; I think it is unlikely for it to resolve above 200, but went for a larger range (up to 250) out of an abundance of caution.

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predicted LOWER

I was doing some research for another question, and it turns out that state legislatures in basically every red state have adjourned for the year. That explains why the flood of transphobic bills stopped, I guess...

bought Ṁ25 of LOWER

The rate of anti-trans laws being enacted has slowed to a crawl, with only one enacted in the past month or so. I don't know how much of that is just because of state legislatures not meeting in the summer, and how much of it is because the legislation is genuinely slowing down. We'll see!

bought Ṁ10 of LOWER

Update: Thankfully, it seems like things have slowed down significantly; "only" eight new anti-trans laws have been enacted this month. If that rate holds, then the total number of anti-trans laws enacted in the U.S. could end up below 100; I don't think the lower rate will hold, but I might be pessimistic.

@evergreenemily Even if it's 100 it's still 100 too many.

predicted LOWER

@ShadowyZephyr Yup. It's still terrifying that 2023 has already seen more than three times as many transphobic laws enacted than 2022. Really hoping that this wave of anti-trans bigotry ends soon.

predicted LOWER

Four weeks after this market opened at 41 anti-trans laws enacted, we are now at 71 anti-trans laws enacted. Four more have been passed by state legislatures but not yet enacted by governors (1 in AL, 2 in MO, 1 in TX - all four will probably be signed), and 376 more are still active, but have not yet passed state legislatures. Of the active bills, about 240 are in states where Republicans fully control the state government, and about 40 are in states where state government control is split. This sets a probable upper cap on enacted legislation at around 310-390 in the worst-case scenario, assuming the introduction of new legislation continues to slow.

A state-by-state breakdown of the 71 anti-trans laws that have been enacted - not just passed, not just introduced, enacted - in the first 148 days of this year:

  • Arkansas: 8

  • Florida: 5

  • Georgia: 1

  • Iowa: 3

  • Idaho: 3

  • Indiana: 3

  • Kansas: 5

  • Kentucky: 2

  • Missouri: 1

  • Mississippi: 1

  • Montana: 7

  • North Dakota: 11

  • Nebraska: 1

  • Oklahoma: 3

  • South Dakota: 1

  • Tennessee: 10

  • Utah: 4

  • West Virginia: 1

  • Wyoming: 1

But "nothing's happening" to trans people in the United States. Sure.

predicted LOWER

UPDATE: As of May 5, 47 anti-trans laws have been enacted in 2023, and 15 more have been passed by state legislatures but not signed or vetoed.

bought Ṁ20 of LOWER

Buying lower because wow, even I don't think it'll be anywhere near that high.

(Edit: Originally, this comment mentioned buying lower "as insurance," which makes no sense because I want this market to resolve as low as possible. I was probably sleep-deprived.)

Please don’t work yourself up by reading that site. There is obviously some anti trans legislation but that site does not seem to care at all about accuracy.

Their centrepiece example, OK SB129, is not even close to the excerpt they show. The passed version of that bill just says that state or county facilities can’t perform or make a referral for a gender surgery, with no listed penalties.

I wouldn’t trust that site after seeing it structured like that. Their entire goal is to make you feel bad.

I’m 95% confidence on this, please check for yourself and let me know if I’m wrong. Haven’t spent that much time verifying the site.

@Gen The passed version of that bill is still anti-trans, though, so the accuracy of their overall number isn't affected.

@evergreenemily I looked through the list of passed bills on the site, and I would consider all of them to be anti-trans in one way or another. I think the numbers given are probably accurate.

@evergreenemily Ok so the number is correct - thanks for checking! This is definitely an interesting market although I'm not sure I have any insight into which way it will go, lol

It's still weird that they would centre an example that was revised and changed (to no longer include any of the examples they show). It seems like the intention is to scare people, and I was moreso directing my earlier comment to the fact that you seem to be very concerned with this problem (/evergreenemily/will-i-flee-the-united-states-befor ) And I believe that site to be intentionally overstating it.

You do still face a problem though, unfortunately.

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