Resolves as YES if I cross the U.S. border and apply for asylum in a different country at any point before February 1, 2029. Otherwise, resolves as NO.

I have insider info, obviously, so I won't be trading on this market, nor will I mention anything on Manifold about any plans I may or may not have to flee the country. I will resolve this market honestly and fairly; I have no incentive not to.

If the U.S. reaches a level of widespread anti-trans hostility that I think is dangerous to my physical safety, or if the U.S. elects a President who ran on a campaign of anti-trans hatred, I may try to seek asylum in another country. Otherwise, I probably won't; I don't like this country, but I know I can't claim asylum anywhere else unless I'd be in serious danger remaining in the U.S.

If I voluntarily move to another country and do not seek asylum there, this question resolves as NO, because that's not exactly "fleeing" the United States.

(A good rule of thumb for this market is that the more likely you think it is that Ron DeSantis wins the presidential election in 2024, the more likely you should think it is that I flee the country. It's not a one-to-one correlation, but...)