Resolves as YES if I cross the U.S. border and apply for asylum in a different country at any point before February 1, 2029. Otherwise, resolves as NO.
I have insider info, obviously, so I won't be trading on this market, nor will I mention anything on Manifold about any plans I may or may not have to flee the country. I will resolve this market honestly and fairly; I have no incentive not to.
If the U.S. reaches a level of widespread anti-trans hostility that I think is dangerous to my physical safety, or if the U.S. elects a President who ran on a campaign of anti-trans hatred, I may try to seek asylum in another country. Otherwise, I probably won't; I don't like this country, but I know I can't claim asylum anywhere else unless I'd be in serious danger remaining in the U.S.
If I voluntarily move to another country and do not seek asylum there, this question resolves as NO, because that's not exactly "fleeing" the United States.
(A good rule of thumb for this market is that the more likely you think it is that Ron DeSantis wins the presidential election in 2024, the more likely you should think it is that I flee the country. It's not a one-to-one correlation, but...)
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or if the U.S. elects a President who ran on a campaign of anti-trans hatred
In 2008, Obama had to say "Marriage is between a man and a woman" to get elected. Gays in the US in 1990 were fine, despite homophobia being much more widespread. There's no real justification for this kind of fear, nothing's happening. And I don't think anywhre outside the US is more trans-accepting than left-leaning US cities.
Canada does (I checked), and presumably a lot of other countries too. There are a lot of countries where just existing as a queer person can and will get you killed, so a lot of more accepting countries will accept refugees from certain countries entirely on the basis of "I'm queer, and my government or my neighbors are trying to kill me."
Also, "nothing's happening???" Have you looked at Florida in the past several months? Texas? Missouri? Things are getting really, really bad. States are banning puberty blockers, trans participation in sports, HRT for anyone under 21...there's active efforts to ban HRT for EVERYONE in some states. And then Florida in particular has made being trans in public a literal sex crime, while simultaneously bringing back the death penalty for nonviolent crimes. There's an attempted genocide in progress. Sure, left-leaning cities aren't transphobic. I'm lucky enough to live in one, but that's not gonna save me if the cops or National Guard come after me.
(Also, gays weren't "fine" in 1990, the community had just barely survived the AIDS crisis. Matthew Shepard was murdered in a homophobic hate crime that made national news in 1998. Discrimination against gay people in housing and employment was widespread. That's not "fine.")
@Conflux It requires me to flee the country, as opposed to moving normally, which probably means I'd be applying for asylum as opposed to going through the normal immigration process.
Y'know, between recent events (particularly DeSantis getting sued by Disney - that can't possibly be a good look to swing voters) and this market's percentage getting pushed down so low, I'm actually feeling a bit less anxious about things. Thanks, y'all.
(I'm keeping the market open, of course. It could still theoretically resolve as YES in the next few years for a lot of different reasons.)
@pizzzzzza Yes, I speak Spanish fairly well. If I end up having to flee, it'll almost certainly be to a country where the majority language is either English or Spanish; Canada, New Zealand, Spain, etc.
The base rate of "people who threaten to flee the USA if [politician they don't like] gets elected" is much higher than the base rate of "people who actually flee the USA if [politician they don't like] gets elected", so I'm betting this down.
That said, if you decide you really do want to leave the USA, I hear Canada is nice. I have a place you could stay for a few days/weeks while you find somewhere more permanent.
@IsaacKing Well, in this case it's less about me not liking DeSantis and more about me being afraid of him and the policies he'll probably try to pursue.
Canada would be my first choice, partially because I'm going to be attending grad school less than 100 miles from the border. I appreciate the offer! I'm hoping things don't escalate to that point; I'd like this question to end up resolving as No, but I have a lot of anxiety over the current situation in the States.