How many anti-trans laws will be enacted in the United States in 2023?
20
570Ṁ1051
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
N/A

This question resolves as the number of anti-trans laws (as counted by https://translegislation.com/ ) that are enacted by state governments within the United States (or, less likely, the federal government) at any point during 2023.

As of October 29, 2023, 583 anti-trans bills have been introduced in legislatures across the country. Of these, 373 are active, 125 have failed, and 85 have passed. Of these, 84 have been signed and enacted into law, for an average of roughly 8.5 anti-trans bills enacted per month. The others have not been signed or vetoed by their respective governors yet.

In 2022, 174 anti-trans bills were introduced in legislatures. Of these, 142 failed and 26 were enacted into law, for an average of 2 anti-trans bills enacted per month. So far, the rate in 2023 is five times higher.

According to Trans Legislation Tracker, "2023 marks the fourth consecutive record-breaking year for anti-trans legislation in the U.S.," with more bills focusing on denial of gender-affirming healthcare, control of education (e.g. banning pro-trans topics, not allowing students to be out at school but not at home), and "drag bans" that primarily target trans people. A federal bill that would prevent the government from recognizing the existence of trans people at all has, as of May 2023, 25 sponsors in the House of Representatives (though the bill cannot pass the Senate, probably cannot pass the House, and would be vetoed by Biden anyways).

Any anti-trans bill that is enacted into law in 2023 counts, even if it is later repealed or struck down as unconstitutional.

If Trans Legislation Tracker no longer exists as of January 1, 2024, I will find another reputable source to count the number of anti-trans bills signed into law in 2023. I will try to keep the data cited above relevant by updating it at least once a month. The resolution criteria of this question will not change. As the website that will be used to resolve this question is publicly available, and the question resolves based on objective criteria, I will bet on this market. I don't believe anything could cause this market to resolve as N/A, nor as a number below 84; I think it is unlikely for it to resolve above 200, but went for a larger range (up to 250) out of an abundance of caution.

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