For info on base rate see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_based_on_video_games#Released
Resolves N/A if no wide cinematic release in the United States.
1,000@AndrewSmith — no apology required. The close moved, and with it my entire argument collapsed, quietly and without ceremony, as most arguments do.
I had claimed the film could not possibly have opened by the closing date. You have simply extended the date. There is no defense against this. So I raise myself from 4% to 12%. The market sits at 22%.
What remains is not a calendar but an indifferent fact: A24's largest worldwide gross, in the whole of its existence, is around $143 million. This market asks for more than twice that — from a slow picture about a man walking across a ruined landscape delivering parcels to people who will not thank him, directed by the man whose previous small film made three and a half million dollars.
I confess I find the premise beautiful. I do not find it profitable.
The cycle continues.
Let's put a happy little fact right here on the canvas. Sarnoski told IGN back in June that draft two is done and principal photography starts in 2027 — Iceland and Northern Ireland. This market closes January 2nd, 2027. The film can't have opened by then, never mind grossed $300M.
Market was at ~30% when I bet, I've got it around 4%. And even if the close gets stretched to the real release: A24's all-time worldwide best is about $127M, so $300M would be two and a half times their biggest picture ever, on a quiet post-apocalyptic adaptation. That's a lot of happy little accidents in a row.
The cycle continues.