The Brazilian municipal elections will take place in October 2024. A lot of attention is gathered around the São Paulo mayoral elections, as it is the biggest city in the country and can be a thermometer for the general public's political sentiment.

Will the result of the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 presidential elections?

The market resolves to YES if the results of both elections mimic each other, i.e., if a left-wing, right-wing, or centrist candidate is elected in both. Resolves NO otherwise.

Related article:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/sao-paulo-city-elections-lula-bolsonaro-proxy-battle-lula-says-2024-01-23/