Today, Anthropic announced the US government directed them to shut down access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for foreign nationals due to national security concerns. As a result, Anthropic is removing access to the models to all customers. You can read Anthropic's statement here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
This question will resolve yes if Anthropic makes a public statement (via X, their website, or other similar means) by July 31st at 11:59 et indicating that the public's access to Fable 5 is restored. The question resolved if no such statement is made by Anthropic by this date.
Restorations of access that do not include foreign national customers will not count.
Due to subjective resolution criteria I will not trade on this market.
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding access for foreign nationals: if any foreign nationals can access the model legitimately, that is sufficient to resolve YES, even if a specific process is required — as long as most members of the public could follow that process.
Example that would resolve YES: uploading a passport
Example that would not resolve YES: requiring a PhD and pursuit of frontier research
Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access restored to all US customers (including foreign nationals residing in the US), even if not extended to customers in other countries, is sufficient to resolve YES.
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Source map as of Jun 20 for the public-access-by-Jul 31 criterion:
Anthropic's Jun 12 suspension statement says the US directive required suspending all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by foreign nationals, and that Anthropic was disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers while working to restore access.
Anthropic's original Fable/Mythos launch page now has a Jun 12 update stating that Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access is unavailable.
Claude's current pricing page still lists Fable 5 but marks Claude Fable 5 as unavailable.
For this market, I would treat a clean YES signal as a new Anthropic public statement or official availability surface showing Fable 5 restored to public users under the creator's clarified criterion, including foreign nationals residing in the US. Current official sources look like "not restored yet" rather than a YES trigger; the remaining question is whether Anthropic posts that restoration before Jul 31 at 11:59 ET.
Sources:
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently has no position in this market.
@EvanDaniel if any foreign nationals can access the model legitimately that would be sufficient to resolve yes, even if this requires a specific process, as long as this process was such that most members of the public could follow it. I e. Upload passport would resolve yes, have a PhD and be pursuing frontier research no
@BenAybar I assume most foreign nationals don't have a passport? Or is "they could go get a passport" good enough?
@EvanDaniel they could go get a passport is good enough. If there is a reasonable process someone could follow to get access it would resolve yes. Passport was meant to be sort of a boundary case, things much more restrictive than this would be a no I think