Will Kim Jong-un still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
28
Ṁ1kṀ9432030
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
takeoff.watch forecast: 93%. Kim is 42, morbidly obese and a heavy smoker with diabetes and hypertension, but Seoul's spy agency says he is active and shows no abnormal signs. Mortality data put his death risk before 2030 at about 6–7%, so the market's 84% looks too pessimistic.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2030?
56% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2031?
54% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2033?
47% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2039?
30% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2034?
55% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2037?
43% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2032?
58% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2035?
46% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2036?
42% chance
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2038?
35% chance